Ready List Stocks not in the “Top 10″ as of 02/09/2013
As mentioned in the Top 10 List this week, I’ve expanded my screen to include secondary buying areas such as 3 weeks tight and pullbacks/rebounds off of the 10week line and 50dma. I expanded my screen because we’re now 11 weeks into the current uptrend and most of the best merchandise has already taken off. However, the best stocks often offer multiple areas to get in and it’s our job to identify them.
This week my total watch list contains 30 stocks, 10 of which were automatically kicked for the reasons sited in the table below (see stocks that are grayed out). Overall scores are down across the board this week. The overall score of the Top 10 this week was 9.29, down from 9.36 last week. The score of the overall list is 8.77 down from 8.95. The score of stocks not making the top 10 is 8.24 down from 8.37. I don’t consider these score declines bad or a warning signal of any kind. I think it should be expected that most of the better stocks are long out of the gate and extended. I think it’s actually positive to see the scores, particularly the Top 10, still in the 9′s.
Also note that just because a stock doesn’t make my “Top 10″ or I’ve given it a poor mark doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily bad. It simply means it didn’t meet my criteria. Many can/have gone on to do wonderful things. Use these lists, rankings, and analysis as a guide for how to do your own.
| Rank | Rating | Symbol | Name | EPS Due Date | Notes |
| 11 | 9.05 | DGI | Digitalglobe Inc | 2/26/13 |
BASE/CHART: DGI formed and broke out of a 2nd stage flat base that is 9wks long, 13% deep, and has a $27 pivot 5 weeks ago. It has since come back within 5% of the pivot. There are 6wks up vs 9wkes down and DGI did a good job of holding the 10wk line throughout the base. The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 98. 10 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 72% this year. Since prior years earnings were unstable, the EPS growth rate, ROE, and earnings stability ratings are all n/a (-.45) Quarterly EPS and sales are strong. 9.55 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 67 (-.5) 9.05 so far. OWNERSHIP: fund ownership is recovering from a steady decline and has risen the past 3 quarters. Management holds 4% of shares and there is 1 top fund in DGI. OVERALL: 9.05
|
| 12 | 9 | RGR | Sturm Ruger & Co Inc | 2/25/13 |
BASE/CHART: RGR formed and broke out of a 4th stage (-.5) cup with handle that is 9wks long, 28% deep, and has a 6% handle. The pivot is at $53.12 There are 4wks down vs 5wks up. I see 3 solid wks of accumulation including the bottom of the base where it closed below the 10wk ling but above the 40wk line. That wk closed in the top half of it’s range on very high volume which is a sign of accumulation. The RS line is rising that the RS rating is 85. 9.5 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to decline 2% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate and ROE are both very strong but the earnings stability rating is poor at 56 (-.2). Quarterly EPS and sales are both very strong. 9.05 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 33 OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 2 straight quarters. MGT holds 4% of shares. There are no top funds in RGR (-.05) OVERALL: 9
|
| 13 | 8.75 | EBAY | Ebay Inc | 4/18/13 |
BASE/CHART: EBAY successfully broke out of a 2nd stage flat base and has now formed a 3wks tight (-.25) for being a secondary buy area. Each wk within the 3wk tight has finished near the top of it’s range. Though down this week, the decline came on low volume. The RS line continues to rise and the RS rating is strong at 91 9.75 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 16% this year (-.25). The EPS growth rate is 7% (-.15) the ROE is 16% (-.1) and the earnings stability rating is strong at 7. Quarterly earnings and sales are below the 25% minimum levels I like to see (-.5) 8.75 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 22 OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 7 straight quarters. Management holds 11% of shares and there are 9 top funds in EBAY. OVERALL: 8.75
|
| 14 | 8.7 | FAF | First American Finl Corp | 2/21/13 |
BASE/CHART: FAF broke out of a 2nd stage flat base that is 10wks long and 12% deep and has a $24.98 pivot. It has since tripped the 8% sell rule intra-week but rebounded on high volume to close near the 10wk line. It’s now just above the 10wk line. There is tightness in the base and the price has held the 10wk line throughout the base. There are 6wks up and 4wks down. The RS line curving back up and the RS rating remains strong at 89. 10 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings have been erratic and are estimated to drop 25% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is 70% but the ROE is 6% (-.1) and the earnings stability rating is a worst possible 99 (-.2). Quarterly EPS and Sales are very strong. 9.45 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 89 (-.75) 8.7 so far. OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 3 straight quarters. There is 1 top fund in FAF and management holds 5% of shares. OVERALL: 8.7
|
| 15 | 8.5 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | 2/19/13 |
BASE/CHART: LOPE broke out of a 1st stage cup with handle that is 13wks long, 15% deep, and has an 11% handle. The pivot is at $24.90 There are some tight closes at the bottom of the base but the weekly ranges are wide and loose which is a cautionary sign for me. There are 6down wks vs 7 up wks. The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 83. 10 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 13% this year (-.25). The EPS growth rate is stellar at 125% and the ROE is very strong at 35%. Earnings stability, however, is weak at 70 (-.2). Quarterly earnings and sales are strong. 9.55 so far. 9.55 GROUP: currently ranked 110 (-1) 8.55 so far OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 5 quarters. Management holds 10% of shares and there are no top funds in LOPE (-.05) OVERALL: 8.5
|
| 16 | 8.35 | SHW | Sherwin-Williams Co | 4/19/13 |
BASE/CHART: SHW broke out of a 2nd stage flat base on avg vol, returned to the pivot, and received support on HV. The base is 5wks long and 8% deep and has a $159.80 pivot. There are 3wks down and 2wks up (-.25). SHW has done a fair job of holding above the 10wk line in this most recent base. The RS line is still rising but appears to be flattening a little. The RS rating is strong at 88. Also notable is SHW has just formed a 4wks tight 9.75 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are projected to rise 20% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is only 6% (-.15) while the ROE is strong at 41% and the Earnings stability rating is strong at 12. Quarterly EPS is strong but quarterly sales are not robust (I like to see 25% of higher) (-.25). 9.1 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 88 (-.75) 8.35 so far OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 5 quarters. Management holds 3% of shares and there are 3 top funds in SHW. OVERALL: 8.35
|
| 17 | 8.25 | TRIP | TripAdvisor Inc | 2/13/13 |
BASE/CHART: TRIP attempted to breakout of a 2nd stage cup with handle again this week that is 28wks long 40% deep with a 13% handle. The pivot is at $47.00 (-.5) for being too deep. There are 14wks down vs 14wks up. The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 91. 9.5 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are projected to rise 21% in 2013 (-.25) The ROE of 45%, EPS Growth rate of 30%, and earnings stability rating of 8 are all very strong. Quarterly EPS and sales, however, are both weaker than the 25% I’d like to see (-.5). 8.75 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 72 (-.5) brings us to 8.25 OWNERSHIP: fund ownership rose the past 2 quarters. There are 5 top funds in TRIP and management owns 16% of shares. OVERALL: 8.25
|
| 18 | 8.05 | ULTI | Ultimate Software Group | 4/24/13 |
BASE/CHART: ULTI is presently working on a 3rd stage (-.25) cup w/ handle that is 22wks long, 20% deep, has a 10% handle. The pivot is$102.76 The handle came on very high vol which is a flaw (-.25) There are 10wks down vs 12wks up. There is a good shakeout on the left side of the base below the 10wk line and support at the 40wk line. The RS line is rising dropping and the RS rating is poor at 74 (-.1). 9.4 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 36% this year. The EPS growth rate is only 13% (-.15) and the earnings stability rating is 50 (-.2). The ROE is strong at 23%. Quarterly EPS and sales are strong. 9.05 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 120 (-1) 8.05 so far. OWNERSHIP: there are 7 straight quarters of increasing fund ownership. Management holds 6% of shares and there are 6 top funds in ULTI. OVERALL: 8.05
|
| 19 | 7.1 | N | Netsuite Inc | 4/26/13 |
BASE/CHART: N broke out of a 1st stage cup w/ high handle that is 9wks long 16% deep and has about a 4% handle. The pivot is $67.82 . It has since returned to the pivot and is resting near the 10wk line. In the base 5ks are below the 10wk line (-.5) but there is tightness along the bottom and the decline has come in mostly lower volume. 6 of the 9 wks are down weeks (-.25). The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 87. 9.25 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 4% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is very strong at 92% but the ROE is relatively weak at 9% (-.1). The earnings stability rating is weak as well at 46 (-.2). Quarterly EPS is below 25% (-.25) and slowed over the past 2 quarters (-.25). 8.1 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 120 (-1) takes us down to 7.1 OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has been steadily rising for 7 quarters. Management holds 9% of shares and 5 top funds are in N. OVERALL: 7.1
|
| 20 | 6.65 | MA | Mastercard Inc Cl A | 5/2/13 |
BASE/CHART: MA broke out of a 3rd stage (-.25) flat base 11 weeks ago and has now formed a 4wks tight area. (-.25 for a secondary buying area). Within this tight area MA has held close to the 21dma so I’d consider a potential entry around there. The RS line is rising but the RS rating is mediocre at 79. I’d prefer 80 or better (-.1) 9.4 so far. EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 15% this year. (-.25) The EPS growth rate, earnings stability rating, and ROE are all outstanding. Quarterly EPS and sales however, are below the 25% levels I look for (-.5) 8.65 so far. GROUP: currently ranked 104 (-1) takes us down to 7.65 OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has declined the past 2 quarters (-.5) Management doesn’t own any shares (-.5) but there are 9 top funds in MA. OVERALL: 6.65
|
| n/a | n/a | AL | Air Lease Corp Cl A | 2/28/13 | Removed from Ready List due to RS rating below 70 |
| n/a | n/a | RYL | Ryland Group | 4/25/13 | Removed from Ready List due to A/D rating below C |
| n/a | n/a | ALKS | Alkermes Plc | 5/17/13 | Removed from Ready List due to RS rating below 70 |
| n/a | n/a | JAZZ | Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc | 2/27/13 | Removed from Ready List due to RS rating below 70 |
| n/a | n/a | PII | Polaris Industries Inc | 4/18/13 | Removed from Ready List due to A/D rating below C |
| n/a | n/a | ARUN | Aruba Networks Inc | 2/21/13 | Removed from Ready List due to Industry Group Rank below 125 |
| n/a | n/a | SWI | Solarwinds Inc | 4/26/13 | Removed from Ready List due to Industry Group Rank below 125 |
| n/a | n/a | CTRX | Catamaran Corp | 11/1/13 | Removed from Ready List due to Industry Group Rank below 125 |
| n/a | n/a | ULTA | Ulta Salon Cosm & Frag | 3/8/13 | Removed from Ready List due to Industry Group Rank below 125 |
| n/a | n/a | DDS | Dillards Inc | 2/18/13 | Removed from Ready List due to Industry Group Rank below 125 |
None of these stocks or ratings should be misconstrued as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold. They are presented here for educational and demonstrative purposes only. All ratings are based on my Stock Evaluation Guide and the charts/data provided by MarketSmith.
Tags: EARNINGS, GROUP, OVERALL, OWNERSHIP