Only 7 stocks have made this week’s “Top 10″ list which I believe is the fewest that have made this list since ChartYourTrade launched back in November. This post is kept as the “Top 10″ this week for the sake of consistency. The vast majority of the best stocks left the dock a long time ago though there actually are some decent setups and strong ratings this week. I chose not to include secondary buy points in this week’s “Top 10″ because with the uptrend under pressure and for the reasons sited in this week’s “State of the Market” my bias is defense and I personally would not look to initiate a position off of a secondary buy point under these conditions (though if conditions improve, I may add to an existing position at a secondary buying area or buy a position back).
|Rank||Rating||Symbol||Name||EPS Due Date||Notes|
BASE/CHART: MX is formed & broke out of a flat base that is 5wks long, 12% deep and has a $16.80 pivot. There are 3wks down and 2wks up but the largest down week showed strong support at the 10wk line. The RS line is rising, the price action has tightened over the past several weeks and the RS rating is 90. Despite the breakout failure last week, MX climbed back above the 10wk line, a sign of support. 10 so far.
EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 12% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is 12% (-.15) and the earnings stability rating is 46 (-.2) but the ROE is strong at 35%. Quarterly EPS and Sales are strong and have accelerated the past several quarters (+.5) 9.9 so far.
GROUP: currently ranked 49 (-.25) brings us to 9.65
OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen each quarter since inception. There are 2 top funds in MX and management holds 3% of shares.
|2||9.55||AL||Air Lease Corp Cl A||02-28-2013||
BASE/CHART: AL has formed and broken out of a large 1st stage cup shaped base that is 51wks long, 30% deep, and has a $26.47 pivot. There are 27wks down and 24wks up (-.25). The base shows symmetry and rising volume on the right side. The RS line is beginning to rise but the RS rating is only 77 whereas I like to see it at least above 80 at the time of break out (-.1) 9.65 so far.
EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 39% this year. Since AL is a recent IPO the EPS growth rate and earnings stability ratings are n/a. The ROE however, is low at 5% (-.1). Quarterly EPS and sales are strong. 9.55 so far.
GROUP: currently ranked 8
OWNERSHIP: fund ownership rose last quarter after being fairly flat since the IPO. There is 1 top fund in AL and mgt holds 32% of shares.
|3||9.5||OCN||Ocwen Financial Corp||02-28-2013||
BASE/CHART: OCN has formed what I’m considering to be a 3rd stage (-.25) cup with handle that is 14wks long, 21% deep, has about a 10% handle. The pivot is at $39.25. There are 5wks up vs 9wks down (-.25) But there are 3wks of significant accumulation in the base (up on strong vol) vs no signs of strong distribution in the base. There is a 3wks tight formed at the bottom of the base, also a good sign. The RS line is still trending higher though flat since Oct. The RS rating is very strong at 98 despite the recent breakout failure and retreat to the 10wk line. 9.5 so far.
EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 213% this year. The EPS growth rate, earnings stability rating, and ROE are all below the levels I like to see (-.45) Quarterly sales are very strong and quarterly EPS is both strong and has accelerated (+.5) 9.55 so far.
GROUP: currently ranked 11
OWNERSHIP: there are 7 straight quarters of increasing fund ownership. Management holds 20% of shares. There are no top funds presently in OCN (-.05)
|4||9.4||FNF||Fidelity Natl Finl Inc||04-25-2013||
BASE/CHART: FNF has formed a 2nd stage flat base that is 5wks long, 7% deep and has a $26.41 pivot. There are 3wks up and 2wks down in the base and the right side has formed a 3wks tight. It has held the 10wk line throughout the base, the RS line is rising, and the RS rating is strong at 86. Additionally, each up week in the base has come on stronger volume than down weeks, a sign of accumulation. 10 so far.
EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to drop 9% this year (-.25). The EPS growth rate is strong at 26% and the earnings stability rating is good at 19.. However, the ROE is only 8% whereas I look for 17% or better (-.1) Quarterly EPS and sales are very strong and quarterly sales have accelerated (+.25). 9.9 so far.
GROUP: currently ranked 83 (-.5) takes us down to 9.4
OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 4 quarters. Mgt holds 9% of shares and there is 1 top fund in FNF.
|5||9.2||WAC||Walter Investment Mgmt||03-07-2013||
BASE/CHART: WAC has now formed a 3rd stage (-.25) base on base pattern with the latest base being a flat base that is 5wks long, 14% deep, and has a $49.67 pivot. There are 3wks up and 2wks down. The base has shown support at the 10wk line and there has been more vol to the upside. The RS line is close to a new high and the RS rating is very strong at 98. 9.75 so far.
EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 113% this year. The EPS growth rate is strong at 51% but the earnings stability rating is weak at 64 (-.2) and the ROE is weak at 8% (-.1). Quarterly earnings are strong but quarterly sales are below 25% (-.25) 9.2 so far.
GROUP: currently ranked 11
OWNERSHIP: fund ownership rose last quarter and management holds 7% of shares. There are 2 top funds in WAC.
|6||8||V||Visa Inc Cl A||05-02-2013||
BASE/CHART: V has formed a 3rd stage (-.25) flat base that is 6wks long, 5% deep and has a 162.77 pivot. It has formed a 5wks tight in the base and has held the 10wk line throughout the base. The recent declining vol in the base is something to take note of but not something I’m taking points off for. There are an equal # of up vs down weeks. 9.75 so far.
EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 18% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate, earnings stability rating, and ROE are all strong. Quarterly EPS and Sales are slightly below the 25% levels I look for. (-.25). 9.25 so far.
GROUP: currently ranked 89 (-.75) 8.5 so far.
OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 7 straight quarters. There are 5 top funds in V but management holds 0% of shares (-.5)
BASE/CHART: N broke out of a 1st stage cup w/ high handle that is 9wks long 16% deep and has about a 4% handle. The pivot is $67.82 . It has since returned to the pivot and is resting near the 10wk line. In the base 5ks are below the 10wk line (-.5) but there is tightness along the bottom and the decline has come in mostly lower volume. 6 of the 9 wks are down weeks (-.25). The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 87. 9.25 so far.
EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 4% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is very strong at 92% but the ROE is relatively weak at 13% (-.1). The earnings stability rating is weak as well at 46 (-.2). Quarterly EPS is below 25% (-.25) and slowed over the past 2 quarters (-.25). 8.2 so far.
GROUP: currently ranked 105 (-1) takes us down to 7.2
OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has been steadily rising for 7 quarters. Management holds 9% of shares and 5 top funds in N.
None of these stocks or ratings should be misconstrued as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold. They are presented here for educational and demonstrative purposes only. All ratings are based on my Stock Evaluation Guide and the charts/data provided by MarketSmith.