Top 10 List as of 03/09/2013

Written by MichaelGLamothe on . Posted in Top 10 List

After two weeks the Top 10 is finally back to having 10 stocks in it.  The average rating of this week’s Top 10 is 9.18 which is a nice improvement from last week’s 8.7  With the uptrend resuming, I take this as an encouraging sign.  While this past week I’ve mostly repurchased some of my sales from the prior two weeks, it’s good to have additional quality new merchandise to select from.

This week’s Top 10 had a three way tie in the ratings by LEN, MX, and FNF.  To break ties the first thing I consider is the current group rank.  Much of a stock’s move is directly tied to it’s group rank which is why this is the first detail I consider for tie breakers.  

When reviewing the Top 10 throughout the week, I consider the rank but more importantly, I consider the rating and the distance between the ratings.  For example, LEN (ranked 3), MX (ranked 4), and FNF (ranked 5) are all rated 9.4 so all else held equal, I’m monitoring their breakouts for price action and volume.  Whereas the distance in rating between JAZZ  (ranked 9) and N (ranked 10) is significant at .4 so if they were both to breakout with the same price action and volume, I would be more inclined to go for JAZZ provided I only had room for one in my portfolio.

Rank Rating Symbol Name EPS Due Date Notes
1 9.65 EVER Everbank Financial Corp 05-23-2013

BASE/CHART: EVER is formed a 2nd stage double bottom that is  17wks long, 21% deep, and has a $15.83 pivot.   There are 7wks down and 10wks up.  Most weeks have finished in the top of their range and on rising vol.  The RS line has turned up and the RS rating has improved to 87.  10 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 17% this year. (-.25)  The EPS growth rate is strong at 36% but the earnings stability rating is weak at 45 and the ROE is lower than what I look for at 12%. (-.3).  Quarterly earnings and sales are strong and the quarterly sales have accelerated the past several quarters (+.25) 9.7 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 27

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen since inception and the number of funds leaped about 40% in the most recent quarter.  Mgt holds 41% of shares.  However, there are no top fund in EVER (-.05)

OVERALL: 9.65

 

2 9.5 OCN Ocwen Financial Corp 04-29-2013

BASE/CHART: Since breaking out of a 3rd stage (-.25) cup w/ handle 6wks ago, OCN retested the 10wk line and continues to get support.  The base is 14wks long, 21% deep, has about a 10% handle.  The pivot is at $39.25.  There are 5wks up vs 9wks down (-.25) But there are 3wks of significant accumulation in the base (up on strong vol) vs no signs of strong distribution in the base.  There is a 3wks tight formed at the bottom of the base, also a good sign.  The RS line is still trending higher though flat since Oct. The RS rating is very strong at 97  9.5 so far. 

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 245% this year.  The EPS growth rate, earnings stability rating, and ROE have improved but are all still below the levels I like to see (-.45)  Quarterly sales are very strong and quarterly EPS is strong and accelerated (+.5) 9.55 so far. 

GROUP: currently ranked 15.

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen steadily for 7 straight quarters.  Management holds 20% of shares but there are no top funds in OCN. 

OVERALL: 9.5

 

3 9.4 LEN Lennar Corp Cl A 03-27-2013

BASE/CHART: LEN has formed a 4th stage (-.5) cup that is 6wks long, 15% deep and has a $43.22 pivot.  There are 3wks down and 3wks up so far.  Volume has been slightly higher to the upside. The RS line is trending higher and the RS rating is 88.  9.5 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 52% this year.  Since LEN is still a turnaround the EPS growth rate and earnings stability are n/a.  The ROE is only 8% (-.1).  Quarterly EPS and sales are strong.  9.4 so far. 

GROUP: currently ranked 39

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 6 straight quarters.  There are 5 top funds in LEN and mgt holds 4% of shares. 

OVERALL: 9.4

 

4 9.4 MX Magnachip Semiconductor 04-22-2013

BASE/CHART: MX formed a flat base that is 5wks long, 12% deep and has a $16.80 pivot.  It failed on it’s first attempt to breakout and tripped the 8% sell rule.  It, however, is setting up again.  The base has 3wks down and 2wks up but the largest down week showed strong support at the 10wk line.  The RS line has a little work to do but is rising overall.  The RS rating is 88.  10 so far. 

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 12% this year (-.25)  The EPS growth rate is 12% (-.15) and the earnings stability rating is 46 (-.2) but the ROE is strong at 35%.  Quarterly EPS and Sales are strong and have accelerated the past several quarters (+.5)  9.9 so far. 

GROUP: currently ranked 61 (-.5) brings us to 9.4

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen each quarter since inception.  There are 2 top funds in MX and management holds 3% of shares. 

OVERALL: 9.4

 

5 9.4 FNF Fidelity Natl Finl Inc 04-25-2013

BASE/CHART: FNF has formed a 2nd stage flat base that is 6wks long, 7% deep and has a $26.41 pivot.  There are 4wks up and 3wks down in the base and the right side has formed a 3wks tight.  It has held fairly close to the 10wk line throughout the base. The RS line is beginning to show some weakness that it will need to correct prior to breaking out.  Tthe RS rating is 77.  10 so far. 

EARNINGS:  annual earnings are estimated to drop 8% this year (-.25).  The EPS growth rate is strong at 26% and the earnings stability rating is good at 19.. However, the ROE, while improved at 12% is still below the 17% or better I look for (-.1)  Quarterly EPS and sales are very strong and quarterly sales have accelerated (+.25).  9.9 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 72 (-.5) takes us down to 9.4

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 4 quarters.  Mgt holds 9% of shares and there is 1 top fund in FNF. 

OVERALL: 9.4

 

6 9.2 WAC Walter Investment Mgmt 03-07-2013

BASE/CHART: WAC has now formed a 3rd stage (-.25) base on base pattern with the latest base being a flat base that is 5wks long, 14% deep, and has a $49.67 pivot.  There are 3wks up and 2wks down.  The base has shown support at the 10wk line and there has been more vol to the upside.  The RS line is close to a new high and the RS rating is very strong at 98.  9.75 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 113% this year.  The EPS growth rate is strong at 51% but the earnings stability rating is weak at 64 (-.2) and the ROE is weak at 8% (-.1).  Quarterly earnings are strong but quarterly sales are below 25% (-.25) 9.2 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 15

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership rose last quarter and management holds 7% of shares.  There are 2 top funds in WAC.

OVERALL: 9.2

 

7 9 DNKN Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc 04-26-2013

BASE/CHART: DNKN is presently working on a 1st stage flat base that is 6wks long, 11% deep, and has a $40.00 pivot.  There is tightness in the base and it has held up well above the 10wk line.  Each down week has found support.  The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 77.  I’ll look for this to rise prior to breaking out.  10 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 20% this year (-.25)  The EPS growth rate is 62%, earnings stability is 14, and the ROE is 27%, all strong.  Quarterly EPS and sales, however, have slowed over the past 3 quarters (-.5) 9.5 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 63 (-.5) 9 so far.

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 3 quarters.  Management presently holds 2% of shares and there are 3 top funds in DNKN. 

OVERALL: 9

 

8 8.95 SODA Sodastream Intl Ltd 05-09-2013

BASE/CHART: SODA appears to be forming a 2nd stage double bottom that is 6wks long, 16% deep, and has a $52.67 pivot.  There are 2wks down and 4wks up so far.  The down weeks, though in greater volume, have shown signs of support (week of 2/1 closed in middle of range, week of 2/22 closed near 10wk line).  The RS line is trending higher and the RS rating is 88.  10 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 8% this year (-.25).  The EPS growth rate is great at 158% but the earnings stability rating is poor at 75 (-.2) and the ROE is just below the 17% I look for (currently 15%) (-.1)   Quarterly earnings and sales, however, are both well above the 25% min I look for. 9.45 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 25

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has been inconsistent and actually declined last quarter (-.5)  Mgt holds 7% of shares and there are 2 top funds in SODA.

OVERALL: 8.95

 

9 8.85 JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc 05-08-2013

BASE/CHART: JAZZ formed a 1st stage cup w/ handle that is 18wks long, 21% deep w/ 4% handle.  The pivot is at $57.99 pivot.  There are only 7 up weeks vs 11 down weeks (-.25) but there are 8 weeks above the 10wk line.  Support seems to have come in consistently along the 40wk line.  The RS line which was previously very erratic appears to be stabilizing.  The RS rating is 79 which is low for a b/o (-.1).  Also notable is the 3wks tight in the handle 9.65 so far. 

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 20% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is 123%, the earnings stability rating is 26, and the ROE is 44% which are all outstanding.  Quarterly EPS and sales are very strong as well.  9.4 so far. 

GROUP: currently ranked 80 (-.5) 8.9 so far. 

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 7 straight quarters. Management holds 16% of shares but there are no top funds presently in JAZZ (-.05)

OVERALL: 8.85

 

10 8.45 N Netsuite Inc 04-26-2013

BASE/CHART: N has formed another 1st stage cup. When stocks rise less than 20%, the stage count remains the same.  N has done this 6 times.  This cup is 6wks long, 14% deep, and has a $75.75 pivot  There are good signs of accumulation in the base and the RS line made a new high.  The RS rating is 91.  10 so far.

EARNINGS:  annual earnings are estimated to rise only 4% this year (-25) The EPS growth rate is strong at 92% but the earnings stability rating is poor at 46 (-.2) and the ROE is weaker than what I’d like to see at 13% (-.1)  Quarterly sales are strong and accelerating (+.25) but quarterly EPS is below 25% and has actually decelerated (-.5) 9.2 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 84 (-.75) brings us down to 8.45

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 7 quarters.  Mgt holds 9% of shares and there are 5 top funds in N. 

OVERALL: 8.45

 

None of these stocks or ratings should be misconstrued as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold.  They are presented here for educational and demonstrative purposes only.  All ratings are based on my Stock Evaluation Guide and the charts/data provided by MarketSmith

MichaelGLamothe

Founder of ChartYourTrade.com

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