Top 10 List as of 04/06/2013

Written by MichaelGLamothe on . Posted in Top 10 List

With the market in correction (or still under pressure as some may argue) I find the prudent action for the time being is to raise cash.  Most stocks follow the trend of the indexes and until conditions improve, avoiding most new buys is wise.  However, we must always be ready with a watch list of actionable stocks for when conditions do improve (and conditions can improve fairly rapidly).  

This week’s Top 10 list has an average rating of 9.25, down from 9.43 last week.  As mentioned in this week’s post about the current “State of the Market” I also use the Top 10 list as a gauge of how top stocks in and around bases are behaving.  Last week, many fell sharply and for the past several weeks, many stocks have struggled to emerge from bases.  This emphasizes the need to enter precisely at the correct buy point (for those following CAN SLIM, the buy point is .10 above the pivot).  To help, set alerts with your broker, try out some of the tools highlighted in the “Tools I’ve Bought” tab, and or use buy stops.

None of these stocks or ratings should be misconstrued as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold.  They are presented here for educational and demonstrative purposes only.  All ratings are based on my Stock Evaluation Guide and the charts/data provided by MarketSmith

Rank Rating Symbol Name EPS Due Date Notes
1 9.75

URI

URI 04-07-2013

United Rentals Inc 04-16-2013

BASE/CHART: URI continued working on it’s 2nd stage flat base this week.  It is currently 7wks long, 15% deep, and has a $56.87 pivot.  There are 4wks down vs 3wks up so far (-.25).  HOWEVER, each down week has shown signs of support either closing in the mid to upper half of the range or pulling back to the 10wk on low vol. The RS line trending up and the RS rating is 88. 9.75 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 31% this year.  The EPS growth rate and earnings stability ratings are n/a but the ROE is strong at 42%. Quarterly earnings and sales are very strong as well. Still 9.75.

GROUP: currently ranked 7

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 7 straight quarters.  There are 2 top funds in URI and management holds 1% of shares. 

OVERALL: 9.75

 

2 9.55 CVRR C V R Refining LP 05-06-2013

BASE/CHART: CVRR broke out of an IPO base 4 weeks ago and has since fell back below the $32.25 pivot but has found support at the 10wk line. The base has 3wks down vs 1wk up (-.25) but the down weeks finished in the middle of their ranges. The RS line seems to be moving up and the RS rating is 86. 9.75 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 66% this year. The EPS growth rate is outstanding at 183%.  The ROE is n/a and the earnings stability rating is 60 (-.2).  Annual sales are strong and accelerating (+.25) but earnings are erratic and declined in the most recent quarter (-.25) 9.55 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 15

OWNERSHIP: Since CVRR is a recent IPO, there is no trend in fund ownership.  Mgt holds 82% of shares.

OVERALL: 9.55

 

3 9.45 EVER Everbank Financial Corp 04-22-2013

BASE/CHART: EVER formed and broke out of a 2nd stage double bottom 5wks ago that was 17wks long, 21% deep, and has a $15.83 pivot.   There are 7wks down and 10wks up.  Most weeks have finished in the top of their range and on rising vol.  EVER tripped the 8% sell rule this week but found support at the 10wk line.  The RS line declined and needs to recover (-.1).  The RS rating is 76 (-.1).  9.8 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 16% this year. (-.25)  The EPS growth rate is strong at 36% but the earnings stability rating is weak at 45 and the ROE is lower than what I look for at 12%. (-.3).  Quarterly earnings and sales are strong and the quarterly sales have accelerated the past several quarters (+.25) 9.5 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 29

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen since inception and the number of funds leapt about 40% in the most recent quarter.  Mgt holds 41% of shares.  However, there are no top funds in EVER (-.05)

OVERALL: 9.45

 

4 9.2 AL Air Lease Corp Cl A 05-14-2013

BASE/CHART: AL formed and broke out of a large 1st stage cup shaped base that is 51wks long, 30% deep, and had a $26.47 pivot 8 weeks ago.  It is now retesting the pivot and the 50dma.  This week it managed to find support at the 50dma though it closed slightly below it’s 10wk (-.2).  There are 27wks down and 24wks up (-.25).  The base shows symmetry and rising volume on the right side.  The RS line broke sharply this week & needs to recover. The RS rating is 87. 9.55 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 16% this year (-.25).  Since AL is a recent IPO the EPS growth rate and earnings stability ratings are n/a.  The ROE however, is low at 7% (-.1).  Quarterly EPS and sales are strong.  9.2 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 7

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the last 2 quarters. There’s 1 top fund in AL and mgt holds 32% of shares. 

OVERALL: 9.2

 

5 9.2 FAF First American Finl Corp 04-26-2013

BASE/CHART: FAF broke out of a 2nd stage cup w/ handle that is 7wks long, 12% deep, and has a 6% handle.  The pivot is at $25.11 The base has formed along the 10wk line and it appears to have bounced off that level last week.  The RS line has turned up and the RS rating is 88.  10 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to drop 25% this year (-.25) the EPS growth rate is strong at 72% but the earnings stability rating is 99 and the ROE is 14% (-.3)  Quarterly earnings and sales are strong and quarterly sales have accelerated (+.25) 9.7 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 72 (-.5) brings us to 9.2

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for the last 4 quarters.  There is 1 top fund in FAF and mgt holds 5% of shares. 

OVERALL: 9.2

 

6 9.15 RYL Ryland Group 04-24-2013

BASE/CHART: RYL appears to be working on a 3rd stage (-.25) cup w/ handle that is 10wks long, 22% deep, w/ a 12% handle.  The pivot is $42.84.  There are 5wks up vs 5wks down. There is strong accumulation on the right side of the base.  There was also a shakeout in the handle that closed above the 10wk line.  The RS line is approaching new highs and the RS rating is 94.  9.75 so far.

EARNINGS:  annual earnings are estimated to rise 90% this year.  Since RYL is a turnaround with several years of negative earnings, the EPS growth rated and earnings stability are N/A.  The ROE, however, is only 12% (-.1) Quarterly EPS is very strong and quarterly sales have accelerated (+.25) 9.9 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 89 (-.75) brings us down to 9.15

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership rose this quarter.  Mgt holds 6% of shares and there are 2 top funds in RYL. 

OVERALL: 9.15

 

7 9.15 MTH Meritage Homes Corp 04-24-2013

BASE/CHART: MTH formed a 1st stage flat base that is 6wks long, 14% deep, and has a $44.85 pivot.  MTH broke out 4wks ago and this week tripped the 8% sell rule.  It did, however, manage to close the week above the 10wk line.  This is a sign of support.  There are 3wks down and 3wks up in the base.  MTH held close to the 10wk line in the base and broke out on high vol. The RS line is trending higher and the RS rating is 85.  10 so far. 

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 82% this year.  The EPS growth rate and earnings stability are n/a has MTH had several years of negative earnings.  ROE is 6% (-.1)  Quarterly earnings and sales, however, are very strong.  9.9 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 89 (-.75) 9.15 so far.

OWNERSHIP: there are 4 straight quarters of increasing fund ownership.  Management holds 7% of shares and there is 1 top fund in MTH. 

OVERALL: 9.15

 

8 9.05 INGR Ingredion Inc 05-02-2013

BASE/CHART: INGR broke out of a 2nd stage cup w/ handle that is 8wks long, 11% deep, w/ a 6% handle. The b/o was on low vol. There are 3wks down and 5wks up.  There is tightness in the and this past week showed strong support near the 10wk line.  However, handles should form in low volume (-.25)  The RS line is turning up and the RS rating is 81.  9.75 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 5% this year (-.25)  The EPS growth rate is 16% (-.15), the earings stability rating is 23, and the ROE is 19% which is strong.  Quarterly EPS is strong & accelerating (+.25) but quarterly sales are well below the 25% I look for (-.25)  9.35 so far.

GROUP: currently 18, still 9.35

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 2 quarters but has been inconsistent over the past 2 years (-.25)  Management holds 1% of shares and there are no top funds in INGR (-.05) 

OVERALL: 9.05

 

9 9 DNKN Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc 04-26-2013

BASE/CHART: DNKN is presently working on a 1st stage flat base that is 10wks long, 11% deep, and has a $40.00 pivot.  There is tightness in the base and it has held up well above the 10wk line.  There are, however 6wks down vs 4 up (-.25) Each down week has found support.  The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 88. 9.75

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 19% this year (-.25)  The EPS growth rate is 62%, earnings stability is 14, and the ROE is 27%, all strong.  Quarterly EPS and sales, however, have slowed over the past 3 quarters (-.5) 9 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 35. Still 9

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 3 quarters.  Management presently holds 2% of shares and there are 3 top funds in DNKN. 

OVERALL: 9

 

10 8.95 SODA Sodastream Intl Ltd 05-06-2013

BASE/CHART: SODA attempted to b/o of a 2nd stage double bottom w/ handle that is 9wks long, 16% deep, w/ an approx 6% handle & failed.  (-.1)The pivot is at $50.46  There are 3wks down and 6wks up so far.  The down week of 2/1 closed in middle of range and the down week of 2/22 closed near 10wk line.  There is a big dryup in vol in the handle & I’d like to see much stronger vol on any breakout.  The RS line needs to strengthen prior to breakout and the RS rating is 80. 9.9 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 3% this year (-.25).  The EPS growth rate is great at 158% but the earnings stability rating is poor at 75 (-.2) and the ROE is just below the 17% I look for (currently 15%) (-.1)   Quarterly earnings and sales, however, are both well above the 25% min I look for. 9.45 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 22

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has been inconsistent and actually declined last quarter (-.5)  Mgt holds 7% of shares and there are 2 top funds in SODA.

OVERALL: 8.95

 

None of these stocks or ratings should be misconstrued as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold.  They are presented here for educational and demonstrative purposes only.  All ratings are based on my Stock Evaluation Guide and the charts/data provided by MarketSmith

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MichaelGLamothe

Founder of ChartYourTrade.com

Comments (3)

  • MichaelGLamothe

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    Just added a mini-chart to URI that you can click to expand. Please let me know how it looks and if you find it useful.

    Reply

  • FlashAAA

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    If its not too much trouble the mini adds a nice technical touch to your analysis and I don’t have to tab through another program to check it out.

    Reply

  • Grateful Fred

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    URI graph opens problem-free, and is a great way to embellish your list. Nice addition!

    Reply

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