Top 10 List as of 04/28/2013

Written by MichaelGLamothe on . Posted in Top 10 List

As many of you who have been following ChartYourTrade.com for a while and read my weekly Top 10 posts know, the point of this exercise is to gather the stocks setting up in bases from my Universe List, flush out as many flaws as possible, and come up with the best 10 stocks to focus on during the week.  Focusing on only 10 stocks (instead of anything happening to break out) has helped reduce my tendency to over trade.  

This week, the Top 10′s average rating remained about the same as last week (9.34 last week vs 9.33 this week).  Should we receive a follow through day in the general market, my focus will be to slowly add positions from the “Top 10″ if and only if they break out of their bases with volume.  

None of these stocks or ratings should be misconstrued as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold.  They are presented here for educational and demonstrative purposes only.  All ratings are based on my Stock Evaluation Guide and the charts/data provided by MarketSmith

Rank Rating Symbol Name EPS Due Date Notes
1 10.4

WETF

WETF Weekly 04-28-13

Wisdomtree Investments 07-27-2013

BASE/CHART: WETF attempted to breakout of of a 1st stage ascending base this week but reversed and failed.  The base is 11wks long w/ pull backs of 15%, 9%, & 11%.  The pivot is $11.39.  There is tightness in the base and it has gotten support all along the 10wk line.  The RS line is near it’s highs & the RS rating is 94.  10 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 236% this year. The eps growth rate, earnings stability, and ROE are all n/a.  Pre-tax margins are below 18% (-.1) Quarterly EPS & sales are outstanding and accelerating (+.5) 10.4 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 30

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 2 quarters.  Mgt holds 35% of shares and there are 3 top funds in WETF.

OVERALL: 10.4

 

2 10

URI

URI Weekly 04-28-13

United Rentals Inc 07-15-2013

BASE/CHART: URI attempted to b/o of a 2nd stage flat base which is 7wks long, 15% deep, w/ a $56.87 pivot 3wks ago, but it failed & tripped the 8% sell rule. It closed this week 9% below the pivot on HV but it closed 40% above the bottom of its weekly range. This is considered a sign of support. There are 4wks down vs 3wks up in the base (-.25).  HOWEVER, each down week has shown signs of support either closing in the mid to upper half of the range or pulling back to the 10wk on low vol. The RS line trending up and the RS rating is 86. 9.75 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 39% this year. The EPS growth rate and earnings stability ratings are n/a but the ROE is 42%, very strong. Quarterly EPS & sales are strong and quarterly EPS is accelerating (+.25) 10 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 22

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 7 straight quarters.  Mgt holds 1% of shares & there are 2 top funds in URI. 

OVERALL: 10

 

3 9.55

CVRR

CVRR Weekly 04-28-13

C V R Refining LP 05-01-2013

BASE/CHART: CVRR broke out of an IPO base 7 weeks ago that was 4wks long and 12% deep.  It has since fallen back below the $32.25 pivot, closed below the 10wk line, & nearly tripped the 8% sell rule. The base has 3wks down vs 1wk up (-.25) but the down weeks finished in the middle of their ranges. The RS line turned up slightly this week and the RS rating is 84. 9.75 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 66% this year. The EPS growth rate is outstanding at 183%.  The ROE is very strong at 60% but the earnings stability rating is 60 (-.2). Quarterly sales are strong and accelerating (+.25) but earnings are erratic and declined in the most recent quarter (-.25) 9.55 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 33

OWNERSHIP: Since CVRR is a recent IPO, there is no trend in fund ownership.  Mgt holds 82% of shares.

OVERALL: 9.55

 

4 9.45

PERI

PERI Weekly 04-28-13

Perion Networks Ltd 05-15-2013

BASE/CHART: PERI gets (-.1) for trading under 400k shares/day.  It is currently forming a 2nd stage cup that is 37% deep (-.5) (shouldn’t correct more than 35%) 14wks long, and has a $13.10 pivot. There are 7wks up & 7wks down. There are also 7wks above & 7wks below the 10wk line. Vol does appear to be growing on the rt side of the base. The RS line is trending up & the RS rating is 98. 9.4 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 63% this year. The EPS growth rate is 32%, the ROE is 25% but the earnings stability rating is 38 (-.2)  Quarterly EPS and sales are very strong and have both accelerated over the past several quarters (+.5).  9.7 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 11

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership was flat last quarter and only 15 funds own PERI (-.2).  Mgt holds 7% of shares and there are no top funds in PERI (-.05). 

OVERALL: 9.45

 

5 9.25

ATVI

ATVI Weekly 04-28-13

Activision Blizzard Inc 05-08-2013

BASE/CHART: ATVI is presently forming a 1st stage flat base that is 7wks long, 8% deep, & has a $15.08 pivot.  Vol has been low throughout the base but each down week has shown support closing in 40% or higher in it’s weekly trading range. There are 4wks down vs 3wks up (-.25)The RS line is strengthening and seems poised to move higher. The RS rating is 87.  9.75 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to drop 28% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is 17% (-.15) the ROE is 12% (-.1) but the earnings stability rating is 9.  Current quarterly EPS and sales are strong.   9.25 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 17

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 3 quarters.  Mgt holds 1% of shares and there are 3 top funds in ATVI. 

OVERALL: 9.25

 

6 9.05

DORM

DORM Weekly 04-28-13

Dorman Products Inc 04-29-2013

BASE/CHART: Right off the bat, (-.2) for being thinly traded (under 400k shares/day)  DORM has formed a 1st stage flat base that is 10wks long, 15% deep, and has a pivot at $38.45  There is a strong shakeout on the left side of the base below the 10wk line. since then DORM has recovered and received support along the 10wk line. DORM had another shakeout below the 10wk line last week but closed the week in 46% of the weekly range, another sign of support. There are equal up & down weeks.  The RS line is flattening out & the RS rating is 84. 9.8 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 20% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is 37%, ROE 20% and earnings stability rating of 13 are all very strong.  Quarterly EPS and sales both slowed in the most recent quarter (-.5) 9.05 so far. 

GROUP: currently ranked 28.  Still 9.05

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has  risen for 7 straight quarters. Mgt holds 17% of shares.  There is 1 top fund in DORM. 

OVERALL: 9.05

 

7 8.95

SNI

 SNI Weekly 04-28-13

Scripps Ntwrks Intr Cl A 05-02-2013

BASE/CHART: SNI formed and broke out of a 1st stage saucer w/ handle that is 21wks long, 16% deep, w/ a 3% handle.  The pivot is $65.71.  There are 11wks up and 10wks down. The heaviest volume in the base came on a down week (2/8) but it closed in the top half of it’s range which is a sign of support.  The RS line has been relatively flat since May of last year. The RS rating is now 76 (-.1).  9.9 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 10% this year (-.25)  The eps growth rate is 17% (-.15) but the earnings stability of 6 and the ROE of 29% is strong.  Quarterly EPS and sales are lower than the 25% I look for (-.5)  9 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 18, still a 9

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 5 quarters.  Mgt holds 29% of shares.  There are no top funds in SNI: (-.05)

OVERALL: 8.95

 

8 8.9

DNKN

 DNKN Weekly 04-28-13

Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc 07-26-2013

BASE/CHART: DNKN is presently working on a 1st stage flat base that is 13wks long, 11% deep, and has a $40.00 pivot.  There is tightness in the base and it has held up well above the 10wk line.  There are, however 7wks down vs 6 up (-.25) Each down week, however, has found support while closing high in it’s range.  The RS line is rising and the RS rating is 74 (-.1). 9.65 so far. 

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 20% this year (-.25)  The EPS growth rate is 58%, earnings stability is 15, and the ROE is 27%, all strong.  Quarterly EPS and sales, however, are well below the 25% I look for. (-.5) 8.9 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 19. Still 8.9

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 4 quarters.  Management presently holds 2% of shares and there are 3 top funds in DNKN. 

OVERALL: 8.9

 

9 8.9

GRFS

 GRFS Weekly 04-28-13

Grifols Sa Ads 04-24-2013

BASE/CHART: (-.1) for trading under 400k shares/day. GRFS is presently working on a 2nd stage flat base that is 6wks long, 10% deep, w/ a $31.03 pivot.  There are 3wks up & 3wks down in the base.  As GRFS has moved up, the down wks appear to have stronger vol while the up weeks have weaker vol. I’m not taking pts off but this is something to be aware of.  GRFS has also held the 10wk line throughout the base. The RS line is close to all time highs and the RS rating is 90. 9.9 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings estimates are n/a this year, not sure why (-.25).  The EPS growth rate is 10% (-.15), the earnings stability rating is 15, and the ROE is n/a.  Quarterly EPS is strong and accelerating (+.25) but quarterly sales are low (-.25)  9.5 so far

GROUP: currently ranked 82 (-.5) takes us down to 9

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen for 3 straight quarters. There is 1 top fund in GRFS.  Mgt ownership is n/a (-.1)

OVERALL: 8.9

 

10 8.85

GOOG

 GOOG Weekly 04-28-13

Google Inc

07-19-2013

BASE/CHART: GOOG is presently working on a 1st stage flat base that is 7wks long, 10% deep, and has a $844 pivot. There are 4wks down & 3wks up so far (-.25) GOOG just formed a 3wks tight near the bottom of the base, which is constructive, and vol seems to be rising on the rt side of the base so far, also positive.  The RS line is moving up overall and the RS rating is 77. 9.75 so far.

EARNINGS: annual earnings are estimated to rise 15% this year (-.25) The EPS growth rate is 21% (-.15) The earnings stability rating is 4 and the ROE is 20%, both strong.  The quarterly EPS is lower than the 25% I like to see, but have accelerated so I’ll call it a wash. Quarterly sales are strong. 9.35 so far.

GROUP: currently ranked 7

OWNERSHIP: fund ownership has risen the past 4 quarters. Mgt holds 0% of shares (-.5) and there are 11 top funds in GOOG.

OVERALL: 8.85

 

None of these stocks or ratings should be misconstrued as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold.  They are presented here for educational and demonstrative purposes only.  All ratings are based on my Stock Evaluation Guide and the charts/data provided by MarketSmith

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MichaelGLamothe

Founder of ChartYourTrade.com

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