Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks bounced back as the US dollar fell to consolidate Tuesday’s large move. Heretofore, volume patterns remain healthy as the major averages continue their 8-week rally. However, it is important to note that there have been an ominous number of distribution days that have emerged in the popular indexes which suggests caution. On average, market internals remain healthy evidenced by an upward sloping Advance/Decline line and the fact that new 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on both exchanges.
Q3 Earnings & QE2 Speculation Lift Stocks:
Stocks got a strong boost from the latest round of earnings and renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve will enter another round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. QE 2). Concurrently, the USD fell which helped a slew of dollar denominated assets rally; mainly stocks and commodities. At 2:00pm EST, the Fed’s Beige Book was released which was largely priced in to the market. The Beige Book is typically published two weeks before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Every time, a different Fed district bank compiles and publishes anecdotal evidence on how the economy looks from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The book is used to give the Fed and investors a better gauge on how the economy is doing in each of the 12 districts around the country.
Market Action- Confirmed Rally Week 8:
Heretofore, the action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong but the market appears to be placing an interim top here as the major averages consolidate their recent move. The S&P 500 sliced below its two month upward trendline (shown above) which is not a healthy sign. The next level of support for the major averages is their September highs, then their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. We have enjoyed large gains since the September 1st FTD and for the first time, the tape is getting sloppy. Trade accordingly.
Sarhan Consulting provides both global macro and equity only consulting services to institutional clients around the world.For years, its clientele has participated in the firm’s objective market-based outlook, which has one primary goal: to provide stable trading ideas across all asset classes.
Sarhan Capital’s consulting arm allows clients to participate in the idea generation process and be privy to many of Sarhan’s best ideas long before they are highlighted in other publications. In addition, clients receive objective feedback on their own ideas and are alerted each time Sarhan Capital traders buy and sell. Many institutional clients including hedge funds, private family offices, brokerages, registered investment advisers, and corporations, have turned to Sarhan Capital for personalized advisory/consulting services in recent years.
Host Of The #SmartMoneyCircle Podcast, Founder and CEO of 50 Park Investments. Adam provides weekly market updates to ChartYourTrade.com readers. He is a FORBES Contributor and is a frequent guest on all the major financial media outlets.
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Disclaimer: All communication from ChartYourTrade is general in nature and for educational and general informational purposes only. Under no circumstance should it be considered personalized investment advice. All our work is general in nature and not specific to any one person. All the information on this site and/or that originates from us, or any of our partners or affiliates, is for educational and informational purposes only and is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell anything. To avoid any conflicts of interest, we do not have a working relationship with any of the companies mentioned in our work. Furthermore, we may have a long, short, or no position in any, or all, of the names that appear in our work and they may change at any time without notice. Investing and trading in capital markets or using margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before you decide to invest or trade in capital markets you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, among other factors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some, all, or more of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with capital markets, investing/trading, and seek specific investment advice from an independent financial advisor and other professionals. Remember all the information we provide is for educational and general informational purposes only and is subject to change without notice.
Stocks Bounce Back As Dollar Falls
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks bounced back as the US dollar fell to consolidate Tuesday’s large move. Heretofore, volume patterns remain healthy as the major averages continue their 8-week rally. However, it is important to note that there have been an ominous number of distribution days that have emerged in the popular indexes which suggests caution. On average, market internals remain healthy evidenced by an upward sloping Advance/Decline line and the fact that new 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on both exchanges.
Q3 Earnings & QE2 Speculation Lift Stocks:
Stocks got a strong boost from the latest round of earnings and renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve will enter another round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. QE 2). Concurrently, the USD fell which helped a slew of dollar denominated assets rally; mainly stocks and commodities. At 2:00pm EST, the Fed’s Beige Book was released which was largely priced in to the market. The Beige Book is typically published two weeks before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Every time, a different Fed district bank compiles and publishes anecdotal evidence on how the economy looks from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The book is used to give the Fed and investors a better gauge on how the economy is doing in each of the 12 districts around the country.
Market Action- Confirmed Rally Week 8:
Heretofore, the action since this rally was confirmed on the September 1, 2010 follow-through day (FTD) has been strong but the market appears to be placing an interim top here as the major averages consolidate their recent move. The S&P 500 sliced below its two month upward trendline (shown above) which is not a healthy sign. The next level of support for the major averages is their September highs, then their respective 200-day moving average (DMA) lines while the next level of resistance is their respective April highs. We have enjoyed large gains since the September 1st FTD and for the first time, the tape is getting sloppy. Trade accordingly.
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Sarhan Consulting provides both global macro and equity only consulting services to institutional clients around the world. For years, its clientele has participated in the firm’s objective market-based outlook, which has one primary goal: to provide stable trading ideas across all asset classes.
Sarhan Capital’s consulting arm allows clients to participate in the idea generation process and be privy to many of Sarhan’s best ideas long before they are highlighted in other publications. In addition, clients receive objective feedback on their own ideas and are alerted each time Sarhan Capital traders buy and sell. Many institutional clients including hedge funds, private family offices, brokerages, registered investment advisers, and corporations, have turned to Sarhan Capital for personalized advisory/consulting services in recent years.
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Disclaimer: All communication from ChartYourTrade is general in nature and for educational and general informational purposes only. Under no circumstance should it be considered personalized investment advice. All our work is general in nature and not specific to any one person. All the information on this site and/or that originates from us, or any of our partners or affiliates, is for educational and informational purposes only and is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell anything. To avoid any conflicts of interest, we do not have a working relationship with any of the companies mentioned in our work. Furthermore, we may have a long, short, or no position in any, or all, of the names that appear in our work and they may change at any time without notice. Investing and trading in capital markets or using margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before you decide to invest or trade in capital markets you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, among other factors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some, all, or more of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with capital markets, investing/trading, and seek specific investment advice from an independent financial advisor and other professionals. Remember all the information we provide is for educational and general informational purposes only and is subject to change without notice.
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