Looking at the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and benchmark S&P 500 index both closed near their respective resistance levels as they quietly consolidate their recent gains in lighter pre-holiday volume. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite continues to lead its peers as it managed to hit another 2009 high on Wednesday.
Remember that the S&P 500 plunged -58% from its all time high in October 2007 of 1,576 to its March 2009 low of 666. Since then, the market has rebounded over +65% but still remains -29% below its all-time high of 1,576. In addition, the index has retraced nearly -50% (455 points) of its decline (910 points) which is a popular Fibonacci level used by many technical analysts. Normally, markets rebound approximately 50% before resuming their prior trend (which would be down in this case). Longstanding readers of this column know that we do not predict the future. Instead, we remain open to any possible scenario that may unfold and interpret what we see happening by remaining objective and carefully analyzing the tape (price and volume) each day.