[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] Market Update [/su_heading]
After all was said and done, stocks closed higher last week as optimism grew that a deal would get done in Greece. As mentioned in prior weeks, the “big” story here is not just Greece – it is the precedent that will be set and the broader ramifications for the entire Eurozone if Greece would be allowed to exit. Remember, if Greece is allowed to get away with defaulting and missing payments, then other troubled countries in the Eurozone (Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc) will quickly follow and that could threaten the continent and the global economy. We wrote last week that it was very important for the 200 DMA line to hold. Turns out that is exactly what happened as cooler heads prevailed (for now). Remember, it’s not the news that matters, it’s how the market reacts to the news. So far, this appears to be another healthy short-term pullback in both size (small percent decline) and scope (short in duration). As long as last week’s lows hold, we have to expect higher prices to follow. Conversely, if last week’s lows are breached, then we expect a new leg lower to commence. Until then, it is important to remain cognizant of the fact that we are still in a bull market (at the deepest last week the S&P 500 only fell -4.2% below its record high) and surprises, in bull markets, occur on the upside.
[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] Portfolio Update [/su_heading]
The FLS portfolio continues acting well. The service sold HACK and added REGN and FEYE last week. Here is a snapshot of the FLS portfolio as of Friday’s close,
[su_heading style=”modern-1-dark” size=”18″] Positions [/su_heading]
- The service owns: TSLA +26.61%, NFLX +18.13%, XLF -0.92%, DPZ +4.03%, MTH +5.58%, AMZN +1.03%, REGN +0.96%, FEYE -0.44%,
- The service will exit: TSLA @ 245.77, NFLX @ 611.67, XLF @24.03, , DPZ @ 111.14, MTH @ 46.05, AMZN @414.55, REGN @ 503, FEYE @ 46.53
[su_heading style=”modern-1-dark” size=”18″] Working Buy Orders [/su_heading]
[su_table]
| Status | Order | Ticker | Buy Stop | Protective Sell Stop | Risk from Entry |
| Working | Buy | UA | 86.45 | 83.65 | -3.24% |
[/su_table]
[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] Analyzing The S&P 500’s Latest Moves (Up & Down) [/su_heading]
Nearly every pullback has been shallow in both size (small percent decline) and scope (short in duration) which is bullish for this ongoing and very powerful rally.
[su_table]
–
| Pullback | Rally | |||||
| High | Low | % Change | Low | High | % Change | |
| SPX | 2134.7 | 2044.02 | -4.25% | 2044 | 2076.62 | 1.59% |
| SPX | 2129.9 | 2056.32 | -3.45% | 2039.7 | 2134.72 | 4.66% |
| SPX | 2134.7 | 2085.67 | -2.30% | 1980.9 | 2119.59 | 7.00% |
| SPX | 2119.6 | 2039.69 | -3.77% | 1972.6 | 2093.55 | 6.13% |
| SPX | 2093.6 | 1980 | -5.42% | 1820 | 2079.47 | 14.26% |
| SPX | 2079.5 | 1972.56 | -5.14% | 1904 | 2019.26 | 6.05% |
| SPX | 2019 | 1820 | -9.86% | 1814 | 1991 | 9.76% |
| SPX | 1991 | 1904 | -4.37% | 1737 | 1897 | 9.21% |
| 1897 | 1814 | -4.38% | 1646 | 1850 | 12.39% | |
| 1850 | 1737 | -6.11% | ||||
| 1729 | 1646 | -4.80% | ||||
| Avg Pullback | -4.89% | Avg Gain | 7.90% | |||
[/su_table]
[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] Chart of the Week [/su_heading]
The S&P 500 Is Only -2.7% Below Its Record High & Only 27.91% of individual investors are bullish.
[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] 2015 Scorecard [/su_heading]
Nasdaq Comp +5.5% YTD, Russell 2k +3.9%, S&P 500 +0.9% YTD, DJ Industrials -0.4%
[su_heading style=”modern-1-dark” size=”18″] Key Points [/su_heading]
- Uptrend: Short-Term Sideways, Intermediate & Long Term Remain Strong
- SPX Support: 2044, 2039, 1980, 1972, 1904, 1820
- SPX Resistance: 2104, 2134.72
- Sarhan’s Crowd Behavior Index: Bullish
(Properitary market indicator that measures crowd sentiment: Bullish Bearish or Neutral)
[su_heading style=”modern-1-dark” size=”18″] Global Macro Update [/su_heading]
[su_row]
[su_column size=”1/2″]
- Stocks: Uptrend
- Bonds: Downtrend
- Currencies (Euro/USD): Sideways
- Softs: Sideways
[/su_column]
[su_column size=”1/2″]
- Energy: Sideways
- Metals: Sideways
- Grains: Sideways
[/su_column]
[/su_row]
