Peter Thiel on Timing is Everything
One of the dilemmas with our post-bubble hypothesis is that while the enormous distortions affecting the market, must eventually unwind, they can get bigger before reversing course. Balancing long-term and short-term views on the pivot of timing indicators is very tricky. For example, we think there is a housing bubble in the United States today, but we thought that two years ago. Since then, homebuilder stocks have gone up by a factor of four, so it would have been a disastrous trade if we had put it on then. Lacking a good timing indicator until recently, we refrained from trading the housing bubble. Sometimes good trades are the ones you don’t put on. (2006)
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