Week-In-Review: Bulls Defend Important Support
The market had every chance in the world to fall last week and instead it rallied. That tells you everything you need to know about the current state of the market. The bulls are in clear control and remain in clear control as long as the major indices stay above their respective 50 DMA lines and above September’s low. Last week was another eventful week with the President returning to work and showing no symptoms, then the attention focused to the next round of fiscal stimulus. Shocker of all shockers, the Dems and the Republicans are disagreeing and both trying to flex their political muscles before the election. The market doesn’t care about that nonsense and knows that it is just a matter of time until a deal gets done. That’s why the market is up and refuses to fall. Remember, the news doesn’t matter, all that matters is how the market reacts to the news. For now, the reaction is bullish.
Stocks ripped higher on Monday after hope spread that a second round of stimulus will be announced soon and news spread that President Trump will be released from the hospital. Trump’s physician Dr. Sean Conley said Monday the president’s condition has “continued to improve” over the past 24 hours, but cautioned that “he may not entirely be out of the woods yet.” Stocks opened lower, turned higher, but then closed lower as the day was all about stimulus. The market rallied after Fed Chair Jay Powell asked for more help from Congress and said there’s a low risk of ‘overdoing it.’ Later in the day, President Trump said that he instructed his people to stop the stimulus negotiations until after the election. The market fell hard and that could be a pivotal shift in the trend as the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500 all closed below their respective 50 DMA lines. Stocks soared on Wednesday after President Trump changed his stance and agreed to a smaller stimulus package. Once again, this action CLEARLY illustrates how dependent the stock market is on easy money. Keep that in mind as we move forward.
Thursday & Friday Action:
On Thursday, the market rallied even after Pelosi rejected the idea of a smaller airline aid package. That was something President Trump pushed for on Wednesday. Under the surface, the action remains great as a ton of liquid leaders continue to rally or are setting up to breakout. Stocks rallied nicely on Friday as the major indices ended the week on a strong note.
Market Outlook: Flood The System With Liquidity
In September, we saw just about every major Central Bank reiterate their dovish stance which should bode well for asset prices- instead they are falling. That could be the first sign that “something has changed.” Earlier this year, global governments and global central banks, once again, stepped in with massive rate cuts and other “aid” packages to help “stimulate” both Main Street and Wall Street. As long as March’s lows hold, the market will likely move sideways to higher. On the other hand, if March’s lows are breached, then look out below. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.