Thursday, March 15, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:
Investors digested a slew of data on Thursday led by the explosive post Stress-test results from the country’s largest banks. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. Since then, stocks have been enjoying a very strong uptrend. The benchmark S&P 500 paused near its 2011 high (~1370) before moving higher. It would be perfectly normal and healthy to see a 5-9% pullback at any point to give the bulls a chance to consolidate the recent gain. That would bring the S&P 500 down to 1310-1250. Until then, the bulls remain in control of this market as long as the benchmark S&P 500 stays above its 50 DMA line.
On Average, Economic Data Helps Stocks:
Investors digested a slew of economic data on Thursday. The Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell to a fresh 4-year low which bodes well for the jobs market and the broader economy. Jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 351,000 last week. Meanwhile, the PPI rose +0.4%, largely due to a jump in energy prices. New York manufacturing rose and topped estimates but showed inflationary pressures are rising. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s business activity index rose for a fifth consecutive month to 12.5 from 10.2 in February. The report topped the Street’s estimate of 12.0.
Market Outlook- Confirmed Rally
After a very shallow pullback the majority of risk assets (Stocks, FX, and commodities) have began to rally. So far this action is considered healthy for the risk on trade. However, if sellers show up and support is breached then the bears will have regained control of this market (still a long ways off). As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!