Another Weekly Gain On Wall Street


Friday, August 6, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

Stocks ended lower on Friday after the jobs report fell short of the Street’s estimate. Volume totals were reported higher on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchanges versus the prior session. Decliners led advancers by almost a 21-to-17 ratio on the NYSE and by a 15-to-11 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs easily outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but trailed on the Nasdaq exchange. There were 13 high-ranked companies from the Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the BreakOuts Page, lower from the 24 issues that appeared on the prior session.

Monday & Tuesday’s Action-  Healthy Manufacturing Data Lifts Stocks:

Stocks enjoyed hefty gains on Monday after a series of stronger-than-expected manufacturing surveys in Europe and the US helped allay concern that the global recovery is in jeopardy. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index slid to 55.5 in July from 56.2 a month earlier but topped estimates (54.5) and was above the critical boom/bust level of 50. Elsewhere, the Commerce Department said US construction spending unexpectedly grew +0.1% in June which also topped estimates (a decline of -0.5%). It was also encouraging to see the euro rally to a three month high against the greenback which helped lift a slew of dollar denominated assets (mainly, stocks and commodities).

Stocks edged lower on Tuesday to consolidate Monday’s strong move after a series of lackluster economic and earnings data was released. The National Association of Realtors said pending home resales in the US unexpectedly fell -2.6% from the prior month.  The report fell short of the Street’s estimates for a gain of +4%. Meanwhile, a separate report showed that factory orders slid -1.2% in June, which doubled the decline analysts’ expected. Finally, the Commerce Department said consumer spending was unchanged after a +0.1% gain in the prior month. The report also showed that US incomes did not increase for the first time since September 2009 while the savings rate jumped to the highest level in a year.

Wednesday-Friday- Stocks Consolidate:

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday after two favorable economic reports were released. The ADP private employment report showed private employers added more jobs than expected last month while the ISM’s service index topped estimates. Stocks closed modestly lower on Thursday after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly jumped. Stocks closed lower on Friday after the Labor Department said July’s payrolls slid by a larger than expected -131,000 while the unemployment rate held steady at +9.5%.

Market Action- Confirmed Rally:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NYSE Composite Index have traded above resistance at their long term 200-day moving average (DMA) lines and recent chart highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, benchmark S&P 500, and small-cap Russell 2000 index still remain slightly below their recent chart highs. However, the fact that all of the major averages are trading above their respective 2-month downward trendlines bodes well for this five week rally. In order for a new leg higher to begin, all the major averages must close and remain above their respective resistance levels. Remember that the window remains open for for high-ranked stocks to be accumulated when they trigger fresh technical buy signals. Trade accordingly.

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