FLS Setups Review: Ending 2018 With a Bang

Hi, I’m Andy! I’m a freelance writer and restaurant manager, and I have also been following ChartYourTrade.com since the day it launched. This post is a review of the performance of the 10 Elite Stock Setups that Adam sent to his Advanced Stock Reports subscribers on Friday, December 21, 2018. Each setup comes complete with annotated charts highlighting the advanced entry point and support level(s), as well as all of the necessary fundamental information.

The holiday-shortened week started out ugly for the market, but buyers were the ones who showed up during the last three trading days of the year.

Unfortunately, it is going to take more than three good days for leading growth stocks to recover from the carnage that we have seen on Wall Street over the past few months.

So with that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s FLS Setups Review.

The General Market

In order to properly evaluate what each of our ten elite stock setups did this week, we need to look at them with the context of the general market fresh in our minds.

The market started out the week the same way it finished last week with a down day on Monday, but then things turned around when we came back after the Christmas holiday.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday were all positive days for the general market, and we closed out the year on a more positive note compared to what we have seen over the previous few weeks.

Hershey Foods Corp. – Did Not Trigger

HSH was not able to trigger Adam’s entry point this week, but it did manage to recover quite a bit of ground after starting out the week by digging a hole for itself.

Following up that big down day on Monday, the stock was able to rebound with positive days for the rest of the week and briefly peaked its head up above its 50-day moving average on Friday before closing just short of that line.

Church & Dwight Co, Inc. – Did Not Trigger

CHD was not about to make its way up to Adam’s entry point, but after following the general market down on Monday, it rebounded quickly and jumped above its 50-day moving average on Wednesday.

The stock then continued higher on Thursday and Friday as it continued to gain ground on its moving average lines heading up towards Adam’s entry point.

Dell Technologies Inc. – Did Not Trigger

Not only did DVMT not trigger Adam’s entry point, I actually did a double take looking at its chart because it looked like it didn’t trade at all this week.

On a second look, it turns out the DVMT did trade this week, it just did so well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. After dropping like a rock on Monday morning, the stock pretty much just sat there for the rest of the week.

An even deeper dive shows that DVMT stopped trading as part of a Class V transaction designed to simplify the structure of the corporation.

CME Group Inc. – Did Not Trigger

After closing below its 50-day moving average last week and then opening even lower to start this week, it was hard to imagine a world where CME would be able to challenge Adam’s entry point during the holiday-shortened trading week.

However, the stock was able to recover nicely with a big up day on Wednesday. Then it took off even higher on Thursday, jumping back above its 50-day moving average. Things got even better on Friday as CME showed more strength.

Ameren Corp. – Did Not Trigger

Despite a lot of red bars last week, AEE was able to hold its 50-day line and looked like it might have a chance to bounce off of that line up towards Adam’s entry point this week. Unfortunately, that did not happen.

The stock sliced through its 50-day line on Monday. It did manage to recover on Wednesday and Thursday, but it fell back against the tide of the general market on Friday.

American Tower Corp. – Did Not Trigger

We have spent a lot of time highlighting stocks that didn’t trigger Adam’s entry point but still showed strength in recent weeks, and AMT was one of those stocks this week.

After falling below its 50-day moving average on Monday, the stock recovered and almost regained its 50-day line on Wednesday. Then it tried again and succeeded on Thursday before finding support there during Friday’s trading session.

Welltower Inc. – Did Not Trigger

WELL acted an awful lot like AMT in that it held up well despite not getting up to Adam’s entry point this week. Just like AMT, WELL lost its 50-day moving average on Monday only to reclaim it and then find support there later in the week.

Barrick Gold Corp. – Did Not Trigger

Speaking of finding support at the 50-day moving average, ABX was another stock that didn’t challenge Adam’s entry point, but it wasn’t all that far away from it either.

The stock bucked the trend of the general market by posting an up day on Monday, and then things held up strong on Wednesday and Thursday before selling came in on Friday. However, ABX was able to find support at its 50-day line, which is always a sign of strength in this type of market environment.

These last few days were definitely a positive in the market, but we also have quite a bit of work to do in order to recover from the damage that we witnessed throughout the month of December. I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait to see what happens heading into 2019.

Make sure you subscribe to Adam’s Finding Leading Stocks newsletter to get this weekend’s updated list of stock setups, as well as his FLS Playbook that breaks down what our model portfolio is going to be doing in the week ahead.

FLS Setups Review: The Bear Has Officially Arrived

Hi, I’m Andy! I’m a freelance writer and restaurant manager, and I have also been following ChartYourTrade.com since the day it launched. This post is a review of the performance of the 10 Elite Stock Setups that Adam sent to his Advanced Stock Reports subscribers on Friday, December 14, 2018. Each setup comes complete with annotated charts highlighting the advanced entry point and support level(s), as well as all of the necessary fundamental information.

It was another absolutely brutal week on Wall Street. Just about everything was down, including all ten of Adam’s elite stock setups. But if you are modeling your trading after his model portfolio like I am, then you were 100% in cash a few weeks ago and haven’t had any exposure to this treacherous market.

Despite the fact that the market is getting slammed right now, and the fact that it’s a holiday weekend, we still need to be on the ball in building our watchlists so that we know what leading stocks to target when things eventually turn around.

So with that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s FLS Setups Review.

The General Market

In order to properly evaluate what each of our ten elite stock setups did this week, we need to look at them with the context of the general market fresh in our minds. And that context was not very good this week.

Outside of a slightly positive day on Tuesday, everything was red for the bulk of the week. And those down days got worse as the week progressed with Friday seeing the market break into new low ground.

With that type of selling action, we aren’t expecting any of Adam’s elite stock setups to be making much progress this week. But anything that was able to hold up or minimize losses could be something to put on a watchlist for when the market inevitably starts chugging higher again.

McDonalds Corp. – Did Not Trigger

MCD looked like one of our best bets for triggering Adam’s entry point coming into the week, but it posted losses on each of the first three trading days bringing it right back down to its 50-day moving average.

Rather than bounce back up off of that 50-day line on Thursday, it sliced down through it and posted a fifth straight negative day. However, things got a little bit better on Friday as MCD was able to hold up with a slight gain despite the negative market environment.

Dell Technologies Inc. – Did Not Trigger

Despite starting right below Adam’s entry point, DVMT failed to make it into positive territory this week. The stock pretty much mirrored the general market with Tuesday being a slight up day surrounded by red bars.

In a market that doesn’t have much to hang its hat on, the fact that DVMT is still holding above its 50-day moving average should be considered a major sign of strength that deserves taking notice moving forward.

Express Scripts, Inc. – Did Not Trigger

ESRX was not able to get above Adam’s entry point, but it did manage to hold it’s 50-day moving average during the first two days of the trading week.

Things turned south on Wednesday as it lost the 50-day line. Then it struggled to retake that key line before falling back below it again on Thursday and then falling even more on Friday.

21st Century Fox Inc. – Did Not Trigger

FOXA was not able to challenge Adam’s entry point this week. It actually wasn’t able to challenge much of anything as it posted five straight down days with some wild daily ranges coming into the picture later in the week.

This has been one of the strongest stocks in the market for the past few months, but after falling below its 50-day moving average on Friday, it will have to start posting some positive action if it is going to remain a leader, even in a difficult market.

CME Group Inc. – Did Not Trigger

CME was another stock that didn’t trigger Adam’s entry point but still put up a fight against the general market pulling it down throughout the week.

The stock got off to a rocky start with a down day on Monday followed by another down day that gave up its 50-day moving average on Tuesday. But CME fought back on Wednesday and was able to close back above that 50-day line.

Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse with down days on Thursday and Friday leaving it below that key line to close the week.

Hormel Foods Corp. – Did Not Trigger

If it is possible for a stock to crash through its 50-day moving average on a Monday and never even come close to Adam’s entry point but still look strong, that is the story that HRL tried to tell this week.

Monday was brutal, but the stock was able to post a small gain on Tuesday and relatively small losses on each of the remaining trading days this week. That left it sitting just below the 50-day line and still well above the 200-day line.

American Tower Corp. – Did Not Trigger

After falling in dramatic fashion on Monday, AMT was another stock that never came close to Adam’s entry point this week.

The stock did manage to post positive days on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it fell again on Thursday before crashing all the way back to its 50-day moving average on Friday.

On a positive note, AMT was able to hold right at its 50-day line, which we have already seen is an impressive feat given the overall market conditions.

Clorox Co. – Did Not Trigger

CLX was another stock that stumbled out of the gate with a massive down day on Monday and never made it back to where it started the week, much less trigger Adam’s entry point.

But after posting three more down days in the middle of the week, the stock was able to make up some ground on Friday. It wasn’t able to hold above its 50-day moving average though and closed the week back below it.

Coca Cola Co. – Did Not Trigger

KO also failed to challenge Adam’s entry point this week. It actually started out the week with four straight losses that saw the stock give up its 50-day moving average on Thursday.

After an attempt to retake that 50-day line on Friday, it fell again and closed back below it, but still in positive territory for the day.

Wayfair Inc. – Did Not Trigger

W was one of the ugliest stocks on our list this week. Not only did it fail to challenge Adam’s entry point, it actually posted losses on each of the five trading days this week, bringing its current streak to seven straight down days. 

The stock currently sits well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. And as Gary Kaltbaum often says, nothing good can happen for a stock that is living below its 200-day line.

It’s hard to identify relative strength in a market that is getting slaughtered almost every single day. None of our elite stock setups were able to break out this week, but some held up better than the general market. Those will likely be the ones to watch for when the market inevitably turns around.

Make sure you subscribe to Adam’s Finding Leading Stocks newsletter to get this weekend’s updated list of stock setups, as well as his FLS Playbook that breaks down what our model portfolio is going to be doing in the week ahead.

Week Ahead: The Longest Bull Market In History Is Over

Longest Bull Market In History Is Over:

Last week was another brutal week on Wall Street as the small-cap Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq both fell into bear market territory (defined by a decline of 20% or more from a 52-week high). The Dow and S&P 500 also fell closer to that dreaded 20% level. Underneath the surface, the action is much worse as investors continue to dump stocks. The biggest take-away for me is that the 9.5 year connection between the stock market blindly following the Federal Reserve has ended. Meaning, for the first time since the Bull Market began in March 2009, the stock market is not blindly following the Fed. That tells me that there is a lot more negative action brewing on the horizon- both on Main Street and on Wall Street. Billionaire investor, Stanley Drukenmiller, has a great line where he says, the best economist on the planet is the stock market. I couldn’t agree more and if you look under the hood, so many important areas of the market are already in bear market territory which bodes poorly for both Main Street and Wall Street. Clearly, the market is speaking, and it is my job to listen.

Monday-Wednesday Action:
Stocks fell on Monday as fear spread that the economy will slow considerably in 2019 which may cause the market to fall into a bear market. In other news, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Monday that he “absolutely” believes the S&P 500 will go below the lows that the index hit early in 2018 and it will most likely fall into a bear market. Economic news was not great. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business conditions index, aggregated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, fell to 10.9 from 23.3 in November, missing estimates for a gain of 20.6. Separately, Homebuilder sentiment fell to its lowest level since May 2015 in December as potential buyers delay purchasing new homes despite a pullback in mortgage rates in the past month. Stocks ended higher on Tuesday as the Fed kicked off its 2-day meeting. Tech shares popped from deeply oversold levels. President Trump urged the Federal Reserve to not “let the market become any more illiquid than it already is.” Stocks opened higher but closed lower on Wednesday after the Fed concluded its last meeting of the year. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point and reduced its projections for future rate hikes but the Fed left its future outlook the same which was viewed as hawkish.

Thursday & Friday Action:
Stocks plunged nearly 500 points on Thursday, sending the Nasdaq officially into bear market territory, defined by a decline of 20% or more from its 52-week high. In other news, investors are concerned that the government will shutdown and that could add more pressure to the economy. Remember, the global economy is slowing materially and right now the slowing people are concerned that the global economy (and US economy) will fall into a recession in the near future. Stocks opened higher but turned lower after the Fed reserved its stance following the market’s strong selloff after its latest meeting. New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed could re-evaluate its view in 2019 regarding future rate hikes.

Market Outlook: Bear Market
Stocks are forming a big top and are beginning to roll over and officially hit bear market territory. Right now, the next big levels of support to watch are October’s low and then February’s low. Meanwhile resistance is the 200 and 50 DMA lines & then 2018’s high. If support is breached, odds favor we are heading into a bear market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.

FLS Setups Review: Biding Our Time During a Down Week

This post is a review of the performance of the 10 Elite Stock Setups that were sent to Advanced Stock Reports subscribers on Friday, December 7, 2018. Each setup comes complete with annotated charts highlighting the advanced entry point and support level(s), as well as all of the necessary fundamental information.

It was another difficult week on Wall Street, and the overall market looks like it is going to be stumbling right through the finish line for 2018. But we aren’t worried about what happens over the next few weeks. We’re looking to be smart over the next few decades.

With that in mind, we only had four of our ten elite stock setups pop above Adam’s entry points this week, but we did see plenty of strength. Speaking of strength, I’m starting to put some weight on my surgically repaired foot and seem to be moving right along with my recovery.

Hopefully, both the market and my foot will be in better shape once we step into 2019. Until then, we just have to wait patiently for our train to come. 

The General Market

 

After a rough start on the open this week, buyers showed up and turned Monday into a positive day. The market opened even higher on Tuesday, but that is when the sellers came back and drove down prices.

After a relatively calm day on Wednesday, the Nasdaq fell a good bit on Thursday before losing even more ground on Friday and closing at the low of the week.

With that type of weakness in the general market, we aren’t expecting to see much in the way of progress from Adam’s elite stock setups this week. Instead, we will be looking closely for which ones held up the best during another stressful week.

CIENA Corp. – Triggered

CIEN started out the week by following the general market in a much less dramatic fashion on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. But then everything changed on Thursday and the stock rocketed higher breaking through Adam’s entry point.

Despite opening slightly lower on Friday, CIEN was able to hold above the entry point. It currently sits above its still-climbing 50-day and 200-day moving averages and appears to be one of the strongest stocks in a market that is desperate for strength.

CME Group Inc. – (Technically) Triggered

CME wasn’t able to close above Adam’s entry point, but it did get above it long enough to trigger an entry on both Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

The stock got a huge boost from the buyers that came into the market on Monday before spiking above the entry point on the following two days. Then it was able to hold sellers at bay and post only minimal losses on Thursday and Friday to hold above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Advance Auto Parts Inc. – Did Not Trigger

AAP wasn’t able to challenge Adam’s entry point this week. It also didn’t get back above the 50-day line that it lost last Friday. But the stock was able to hold its ground and prevent falling as dramatically as the general market did on Friday.

This stock has some serious work cut out for it if it is going to retake its 50-day moving average and eventually break through its entry point, but it is still sitting well above its 200-day line and could be a solid bounce-back candidate in the weeks to come.

Expeditors Intl of Washington, Inc. – Did Not Trigger

EXPD put together a chart that was a mirror image of what we saw from the Nasdaq Composite this week, and after the tumble that it took last week, that could definitely be considered a positive sign.

The stock was able to hold it’s 50-day and 200-day lines, which are currently converging. Should it move higher from here, we would see the 50-day line bounce right off of the 200-day line, which could also be a positive sign for the stock.

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. – Did Not Trigger

It didn’t feel like APD had a great chance of getting up to Adam’s entry point this week, but it did have a decent shot at retaking its 50-day line. It was able to do exactly that a few times throughout the week but ultimately closed back below that mark after a rough Friday.

With the stock and its 50-day moving average both sitting below the 200-day moving average, it is going to take some serious work for APD to get back on track in the coming weeks.

21st Century Fox Inc. – Did Not Trigger

Strength has been the name of the game for FOXA over the past few months and it maintained that strength this week despite the fact that it was not able to move higher through Adam’s entry point.

Although the price fell on three of the five trading days this week, FOXA was actually able to hold up much better than the general market and is definitely going to be a stock to watch in the coming weeks.

Cisco Systems, Inc. – Did Not Trigger

CSCO was another stock that would need a very ambitious effort to get to Adam’s entry point this week, but that didn’t it from trying.

While they weren’t the strongest positive days, the stock did move higher in each of the first four trading sessions this week. Unfortunately, things turned south on Friday and CSCO was not able to hold onto its 50-day moving average.

HubSpot Inc. – Did Not Trigger

HUBS was another stock on our list that failed to challenge Adam’s entry point this week. But after regaining the 50-day line that it lost last week, you could definitely argue that this was one of the stronger stocks in the market this week.

HUBS is currently sitting right above that 50-day line, and it was able to finish the week higher than it started, which is an impressive feat for any stock given the current market conditions.

Barrick Gold Corp. – Triggered

ABX had a rough beginning and end to the week, but there is no denying that the stock showed strength as it pushed up through Adam’s entry point on Wednesday and then continued higher Thursday.

Despite falling below the entry point on Friday, ABX is still sitting well above it’s 50-day moving average, which recently crossed back above its 200-day moving average. This looks like one of the strongest stocks on our list this week.

Sendgrid, Inc. – Triggered

SEND was another stock that was able to break above Adam’s entry point just briefly this week as it had three strong up days to start out the week. Things turned south on Thursday and Friday, but the stock was still able to hold its ground well above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

We only saw four of our elite stock setups poke their heads above Adam’s entry points this week, but we did see plenty of strength in a market that hasn’t shown much of it. We’re not looking to jump into the market at this point, but when we do, these will be some of the stocks on our short buying list.

Make sure you subscribe to Adam’s Finding Leading Stocks newsletter to get this weekend’s updated list of stock setups, as well as his FLS Playbook that breaks down what our model portfolio is going to be doing in the week ahead.

Week Ahead: Stocks Still In Trouble Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Stocks Still In Trouble Ahead Of Fed Meeting:

Stocks tried to rally last week as investors digested a slew of incoming data & the latest round of political/economic headlines. Stepping back, the action remains weak as the market continues to struggle to find sustainable bid. Remember, it’s not the news that matters but how the market reacts to the news. So far, the reaction is lackluster at best and that suggests more time is needed before a new trend (up or down) develops. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates and then the market wants to see what they will do next. Meaning, will the be dovish and signal a pause to future hikes or will they stay the course and continue to announce more rate hikes in 2019? The most likely outcome will be to see the Fed continue to hedge itself and go back to the language of saying they are data dependent. This way, if the data improves, they can raise. If not, they can hold off or even cut- if the data deteriorates substantially. Filtering out all the noise, the next level of resistance to watch for the major indices is the 50 and 200 DMA lines and the next level of support is February’s low for the popular averages. It is important to note that the Russell 2000 already broke below Feb’s low and is -19% below its recent high which means it is one or two bad days from officially entering a bear market. By definition, we have to expect this sloppy sideways action to continue until either support or resistance is breached.

Monday-Wednesday Action:
Stocks opened sharply lower but closed mostly higher on Monday after fear spread regarding the ongoing trade war and a slowing global economy. The market tried to recover after buyers showed up and defended key support. Shares of Apple fell after a Chinese court granted Qualcomm an injunction that stopped Apple from selling certain iPhones in China. Stocks also fell after UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced the delay of a key Brexit vote in the country’s parliament. It sent the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all broke below their October’s low. October’s low has served as important support in recent weeks. Separately, the small-cap Russell 2000 undercut February’s low before reversing.

Stocks opened higher on Tuesday but closed mostly lower as investors digested another busy day of news. President Trump met with Democratic leadership and threatened to shut down the government. In other news, Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s CFO, was granted bail by a Canadian judge. Separately, China took some steps to address Trump’s economic concerns and reduced auto tariffs and pledged to buy more American goods. Stocks opened sharply higher on Wednesday after key support was defended on Monday and Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal lawyer, was sentenced to three years in prison. That was seen as a positive sign for the market because now that the Cohen case is closed, Trump will not get into legal trouble from Cohen’s case. Sellers showed up in the afternoon and erased some of the earlier gains.

Thursday & Friday Action:
Stocks were relatively quiet on Thursday as investors digested a busy week. Apple announced a new billion dollar campus in Austin Texas which could create 15,000 new jobs. Separately, China detained two Canadian businessmen for national security reasons. The transportation index slid to a fresh low which bodes poorly for both Main Street and Wall Street. On Friday, China announced weaker than expected economic data which sent global stocks lower.

Market Outlook: Big Top Forming
Stocks are forming a big top as the major indices continue to go nowhere fast. Right now, the next big levels of support to watch are October’s low and then February’s low. Meanwhile resistance is the 200 and 50 DMA lines & then 2018’s high. If support is breached, odds favor we are heading into a bear market. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.

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