[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] Market Update: Transports Drag Market Lower[/su_heading]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the benchmark S&P 500, small-cap Russell 2000, and Nasdaq composite all fell last week but rallied for the month. The latest reading on U.S. Q1 GDP fell 0.7%, beating the government’s estimate for a decline of 0.8%. Economists now believe that Q2 GDP will grow around 2% which means the U.S. economy is poised for its worst first-half performance since 2011…WITH RATES AT ZERO. The Fed has told us that they remain data-dependent and that we should continue to interpret incoming data for signs of what they will do next. At this point, the “data” clearly suggests that a rate hike is off the table until the “data” improves markedly. In fact, I would argue that the Fed will likely CUT rates and or announce QE 4, because that is what the “data” is suggesting right now. The option to raise rates is off the table for now, because if the economy can’t grow when rates are at zero – what will happen if they raise rates? Looking at the market, it is disconcerting to see the transports continue to act so weak which bodes poorly for both Main St & Wall St. We’ll see how this plays out but this is definitely front and center on our radar and not a “bullish” sign. The “good” news is that the major averages are all trading a few percentage points below their 2015 and/or record highs. For now, that is bullish as all of the pullbacks remain shallow in both size (small % decline) and scope (short in duration).
[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] Portfolio Update [/su_heading]
Thankfully, FLS has navigated the market rather well. Here is a snapshot of the FLS portfolio as of Friday’s close.
[su_heading style=”modern-1-dark” size=”18″] Positions [/su_heading]
- The service owns: TSLA +22.53%, AAPL +0.22%, NFLX +8.32%, REGN +5.44%, SWKS +9.83%, XLF -1.09%, HACK +0.07%
- The service will exit: TSLA @ 234.87, AAPL @ 128.26, NFLX @ 576.13, REGN @ 486.10, SWKS @ 99.57, XLF @24.03, HACK @ 28.69
[su_heading style=”modern-1-dark” size=”18″] Working Buy Orders [/su_heading]
[su_table]
| Status | Order | Ticker | Buy Stop | Protective Sell Stop | Risk from Entry |
| Working | BUY | AMZN | 439 | 414.55 | -5.57% |
| Working | BUY | DPZ | 111.43 | 105.14 | -5.64% |
| Working | BUY | MTH | 46.05 | 43.13 | -6.34% |
[/su_table]
[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] Analyzing The S&P 500’s Latest Moves (Up & Down) [/su_heading]
[dummy_text]
[su_table]
| Pullback | Rally | |||||
| High | Low | % Change | Low | High | % Change | |
| SPX | 2119.59 | 2039.69 | -3.77% | 2039.69 | 2134.72 | 4.66% |
| SPX | 2093.55 | 1980 | -5.42% | 1980.9 | 2119.59 | 7.00% |
| SPX | 2079.46 | 1972.56 | -5.14% | 1972.56 | 2093.55 | 6.13% |
| SPX | 2019 | 1820 | -9.86% | 1820 | 2079.47 | 14.26% |
| SPX | 1991 | 1904 | -4.37% | 1904 | 2019.26 | 6.05% |
| SPX | 1897 | 1814 | -4.38% | 1814 | 1991 | 9.76% |
| SPX | 1850 | 1737 | -6.11% | 1737 | 1897 | 9.21% |
| SPX | 1729 | 1646 | -4.80% | 1646 | 1850 | 12.39% |
| Avg Pullback | -5.48% | Avg Gain | 9.63% | |||
[/su_table]
[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] Chart of the Week [/su_heading]
Momo Inc $MOMO: New IPO – Chinese Social Media
Stock Forming Bullish 2-Weeks Tight Pattern
[su_heading style=”modern-2-dark” size=”20″] 2015 Scorecard [/su_heading]
Nasdaq Comp +7.1% YTD, Russell 2k +3.6%, S&P 500 +2.4% YTD, DJ Industrials +1.1%
[su_heading style=”modern-1-dark” size=”18″] Key Points [/su_heading]
- Uptrend: Short-Term Pulling Back, Intermediate & Long Term Remain Strong
- SPX Support = 2067, 2039, 1980, 1972, 1904, 1820
- SPX Resistance = 2134.72
- Sarhan’s Crowd Behavior Index: Neutral
(Proprietary market indicator that measures crowd sentiment: Bullish Bearish or Neutral)
[su_heading style=”modern-1-dark” size=”18″] Global Macro Update [/su_heading]
[su_row]
[su_column size=”1/2″]
- Stocks: Uptrend
- Bonds: Looks Loppy
- Currencies (Euro/USD): Sideways
- Softs: Downtrend
[/su_column]
[su_column size=”1/2″]
- Energy: Uptrend
- Metals: Sideways
- Grains: Downtrend
[/su_column]
[/su_row]
