Monday, January 23, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks and a slew of other risk assets opened higher after a strong start to 2012. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. It was also encouraging to see the S&P 500 break above its downward trendline and its longer term 200 DMA line. Looking forward, the market is doing its best to make its way above Q4 2011’s high (~1292) and now has its sights set on its 2011 highs near 1370. In addition, the bulls remain in control as long as the benchmark S&P 500 trades above its 200 DMA line.
Euro Continues To Rally & Lifts Other Risk Assets
On Monday, stocks and slew of other risk assets opened higher as investors awaited a busy week of earnings and economic data. The euro rallied as finance ministers and other officials met in Europe to discuss the terms of the Greek restructuring deal which will be part of a second bailout package for Athens. The officials also discussed other important issues that are aimed to help quell the massive debt issues plaguing the continent. Remember in addition to digesting the actual news it is extremely important to focus on how markets react to the news for signs of what the participants are actually thinking. Here’s what’s on tap for the rest of the week:
MONDAY: Earnings from CSX, Texas Instruments
TUESDAY: 2-yr note auction, FOMC meeting begins, Obama’s State of the Union address; Earnings from DuPont, J&J, McDonald’s Travelers, Verizon, Apple, Yahoo
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, FHFA house price index, pending home sales, oil inventories, FOMC meeting announcement, Bernanke press conference; Earnings from Boeing, ConocoPhillips, United Tech, Delta, Motorola Solutions, Amgen, Netflix, SanDisk, Symantec
THURSDAY: Durable goods orders, jobless claims, new home sales, leading indicators, 7-yr note auction; Earnings from AT&T, Caterpillar, 3M, Nokia, AutoNation, Bristol-Myers, Time Warner Cable, Motorola Mobility, Starbucks
FRIDAY: GDP, consumer sentiment; Earnings from Chevron, P&G, DRHorton
Market Outlook- New Rally Confirmed
Risk assets (stocks, FX, and commodities) have been acting better since the latter half of December. Now that the major U.S. averages scored a proper follow-through day the path of least resistance is higher. Looking forward, one can err on the long side as long as the benchmark S&P 500 remains above support (1292). Leadership is beginning to improve which is another healthy sign. Now that the 200 DMA line was taken out it will be important to see how long the market can stay above this important level. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!