Wednesday, June 28, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:
The major averages ended lower on the final day of the second quarter as European debt woes threatened the global economic recovery. The widespread losses coupled with the ominous technical damage effectively ended the latest confirmed rally which began with the June 15, 2010 follow-through day (FTD). Wednesday’s volume totals were reported lower on the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange compared to Tuesday’s levels. Decliners trumped advancers by over a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange. There were only 2 high-ranked companies from the CANSLIM.net Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the CANSLIM.net BreakOuts Page, lower than the 15 issues that appeared on the prior session. Meanwhile, new 52-week lows substantially outnumbered new 52-week highs on the NYSE and the Nasdaq exchange. As leadership evaporated in recent sessions, in this commentary it was repeatedly noted – “Without a healthy crop of leaders hitting new highs it is hard for the major averages to sustain a rally.”
Q2 & 2010 Results For the Major Averages:
It was a brutal quarter on Wall Street. The Nasdaq composite and the benchmark S&P 500 index both fell -12% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small cap Russell 2000 index skidded –10%, for their worst quarter since Q4 2008. It was the Nasdaq’s worst second quarter since 2002. For the year, The Nasdaq composite is down -7%, the S&P 500 fell -7.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -6%. In addition, it was worrisome to see the S&P 500 close below 1040 which heretofore, served as formidable support for most of the year.
Tepid Economic Data Weighs On Stocks:
Before Wednesday’s opening bell, ADP, the country’s largest private payrolls firm, said private payrolls rose by a smaller-than-expected reading in June which bodes poorly for the ailing jobs market and Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls Report. After Wednesday’s open, the Institute for Supply Management released it’s Chicago area business index which showed manufacturing improved which bodes well for the economic recovery.
Market Action- In A Correction:
The market is in a correction which emphasizes the importance of raising cash and adopting a strong defensive stance until a new follow-through day emerges. For the past several weeks, this column has steadily noted the importance of remaining very selective and disciplined because all of the major averages are still trading below their downward sloping 50-day moving average (DMA) lines. Their 50 DMA line may continue to act as stubborn resistance. It was also recently noted that the NYSE Composite Index’s 50 DMA line already sliced below the 200 DMA line, an event known by market technicians as a “death cross” which usually has bearish implications. Trade accordingly.
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