Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks and a slew of other risk assets rose on Tuesday as traders returned from a long holiday weekend in the U.S. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. It was also encouraging to see the S&P 500 break above its downward trendline and its longer term 200 DMA line (shown above). Looking forward, the market is doing its best to make its way above Q4 2011’s high (~1292) and now has its sights set on its 2011 highs near 1370. In addition, the bulls remain in control as long as the benchmark S&P 500 trades above its 200 DMA line.
China’s Economy Slows But Tops Estimates, Spanish Debt Auction Solid, & Earnings Mixed
On Monday, U.S. markets were closed in observance of Martin Luther King’s birthday. China said its economy grew at its weakest pace in 2-1/2 years as exports waned and their housing and stock markets continue to fall. China’s economy remains strong on a relative basis and rose 8.9% in Q4 which topped the 8.7% forecast. On Tuesday, stocks opened after Spain’s debt auction topped estimates and the latest round of Q4 earnings were mixed. Citigroup (C) missed numbers while Wells Fargo (WFC) beat the Street’s estimates.
Market Outlook- New Rally Confirmed
Risk assets (stocks, FX, and commodities) have been acting better since the latter half of December. Now that the major U.S. averages scored a proper follow-through day the path of least resistance is higher. Looking forward, one can err on the long side as long as the benchmark S&P 500 remains above support (1260). Leadership is beginning to improve which is another healthy sign. Now that the 200 DMA line was taken out it will be important to see how long the market can stay above this important level. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!