Thursday, February 02, 2012
Stock Market Commentary:
Stocks and a slew of other risk assets were relatively quiet ahead of Friday’s much anticapitated nonfarm payrolls report. From our point of view, the major averages confirmed their latest rally attempt on Tuesday 1.3.12 which was Day 9 of their current rally attempt. It was also encouraging to see the S&P 500 break above its downward trendline and its longer term 200 DMA line. Looking forward, the S&P 500 is doing its best to stay above its Q4 2011′s high (~1292) and now has its sights set on its 2011 high near 1370. In addition, the bulls remain in control as long as the benchmark S&P 500 trades above 1292 and then its 200 DMA line.
Stocks Quiet Ahead of Jobs Report:
On Wednesday, stocks and a slew of other risk assets were relatively quiet as the world awaited Friday’s jobs report. The economic and earnings data on Thursday was nothing special. Before Thursday’s open, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims slid by –12,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 367,000. This bodes well for last month’s jobs report which analysts now believe U.S. employers added 150,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at +8.5%. A separate report released from the Labor Department showed that U.S. nonfarm productivity rose at a +0.7% annual rate but just missed the Street’s estimate for a gain of +0.8%.
Market Outlook- New Rally Confirmed
Risk assets (stocks, FX, and commodities) have been acting better since the latter half of December. Now that the major U.S. averages scored a proper follow-through day the path of least resistance is higher. Looking forward, one can err on the long side as long as the benchmark S&P 500 remains above support (1292). Leadership is beginning to improve which is another healthy sign. Now that the 200 DMA line was taken out it will be important to see how long the market can stay above this important level. If you are looking for specific help navigating this market, feel free to contact us for more information. That’s what we are here for!