The bulls remain in clear control of this market as the impressive rally continues unchecked. There are a few important things to note:
- The market is extremely extended.
- It refuses to fall. In fact, pullbacks last a few hours, not even a few days.
- Even stocks that gap down on earnings are almost immediately bought up which tells you everything you need to know about this very strong bull market.
I’m still of the mindset that we are entering a climax run where the market just takes off and rallies into no-man’s land. Historically, a climax run occurs in the late stages of a bull market and you can easily see the market surge 50% in a few months as the buying frenzy gets out of control. We still have a slew of earnings that are coming out over the next few weeks but needless to say, in the short-term, the market is way overdue to pullback.
A CLOSER LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK…
Stocks rallied on Monday, erasing slight losses from earlier in the session, as U.S. lawmakers reached a deal that would re-open the government after it closed Friday night at midnight. Separately, earnings season is off to a good start. So far, nearly all of the big banks are trading higher after reporting Q1 results and nearly 68% of the companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings beat estimates according to data from CNBC and FactSet. After Monday’s close, Netflix gapped up after reporting solid numbers.
On Tuesday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit fresh record highs as Netflix surged. The video streaming giant said it added 8.33 million new subscribers, easily beating the Street’s estimate for a gain of 6.39 million. Netflix’s stock vaulted over +10% on Tuesday which helped the company’s market cap jump above $100 billion for the first time. Stocks opened higher on Wednesday, but sold off mid-day before rallying back into the close.
Thur & Fri Action:
Stocks were quiet on Thursday after weaker-than-expected housing data was released. On Wednesday, existing home sales missed estimates. Then, on Thursday, New Home Sales came in at 625,000, missing estimates for 680,000. A slew of housing stocks fell on the news.
Stocks rallied on Friday after President Trump gave a speech in Davos and said U.S. is open for business. Before Friday’s open, the government said, Q4 GDP rose by 2.6%, missing estimates for a gain of +2.9%.
Market Outlook: Bulls Are Strong
The bulls are back in control and the market remains very strong. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.