Stocks Surge But Where’s The Volume?


Thursday, June 10, 2010
Stock Market Commentary:

The major averages and a slew of commodities surged after a host of healthy economic data was released from Asia and the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) held rates steady near historic lows. Volume, an important indicator of institutional sponsorship, was reported lighter than Wednesday’s levels on both major exchanges which prevented the S&P 500 from scoring a follow-through day (FTD) and suggested large institutions were not aggressively buying stocks. Advancers trumped decliners by well  over a 5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange. There were only 12 high-ranked companies from the Leaders List that made a new 52-week high and appeared on the BreakOuts Page, higher than the 5 issues that appeared on the prior session.  New 52-week highs outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE but trailed new lows on the Nasdaq exchange.

Strong Economic Data From China, Japan, Australia & The US Lifts Stocks:

Overnight, stocks in Asia rose after a slew of healthy economic reports were released from China, Japan and Australia. The latest data showed accelerating economic growth which was a welcoming sign from that region. Chinese exports surged to a six year high which helped reaffirm the notion that the world’s fastest-growing major economy will continue to fuel the global recovery. Japan’s GDP rose at an annualized +5% rate in the first quarter and Australia’s nonfarm payrolls report rose for a third consecutive month. In the US, weekly jobless claims fell while the trade deficit widened to the highest level in a year as exports fell. All this, sent the US dollar lower and a host of dollar denominated assets higher (mainly stocks and commodities) as these markets work off their deeply oversold levels.

Market Action- In A Correction:

The benchmark S&P 500 Index marked Day 12 of its current rally attempt while narrowly avoiding undercutting its 5/25/10 low thus far but failed to score a proper FTD due to the light volume that accompanied Thursday’s strong move.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average marked Day 3 of its latest rally attempt while the Nasdaq composite marked day 1

It is well known that a market should not be considered “healthy” unless it trades above its rising 200-day moving average (DMA) line. The fact that all the major averages are below both their 50 & 200 DMA lines bodes poorly for the near term. That said, the bears will likely remain in control until the popular averages close above their important moving averages. Remember, we have seen these very strong light volume rallies in the past only to fail a few days later. Trade accordingly.

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