Market Insight

Rally Under Pressure

Friday, April 04, 2013
Stock Market Commentary:

The current rally is under pressure as distribution (institutional selling) spiked higher in the first week of the second quarter. The elevated distribution sent a slew of leading stocks and market indexes below their respective 50 DMA lines. Defense is paramount until the market can make its next move. So far, the S&P 500 is down a little over 2% from its Q1 high and is sitting near its 50 DMA line. The last pullback was shallow in size (-2.9%) and scope (only 1-week). The market is way overdue for a larger pullback and only time will tell if we roll over and get the larger pullback that normally occurs around this time of year.

Monday-Wednesday’s Action: Distribution Rises

European and Canadian stock markets were closed on Monday for Easter which led to a relatively quiet session. Volume in the U.S. stock market was the third lowest of the year. Separately, in the US, the March ISM Index missed estimates and fell to 51.3 in March from 54.2 in February and missed the Street’ estimate for 54. March’s reading was the lowest reading since December and the first decline since November.. In Asia, economic data failed to impress which bodes poorly for the global economy. China’s purchasing manufacturing index (PMI) and Japan’s Tankan Survey both missed estimates which led some to question the health of the global recovery.

Stocks rallied on Tuesday as investors looked past a weaker than expected manufacturing report from Europe and embraced stronger than expected economic data from the US. Markit’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell in March to 46.8 from 47.9 in February. March’s reading barely beat the Street’s estimate for 46.6 and was the 20th straight month below the boom/bust level of 50. Factory orders in the US rose 3% which beat the Street’s estimate for 2.9%.

Stocks in the U.S. fell on Wednesday as a slew of economic data missed estimates. The ISM service index fell to 54.4 in March from 56 in February and missed the Street’s estimate for 55.8. This was the slowest reading since August 2012. Elsewhere, ADP, the country’s largest private payrolls company, said US employers added 158k new jobs in March which fell short of the street’s estimate for 198k. Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association said that home loan applications fell -4% last week primarily due to a decline in refinancing.

Thursday & Friday’s Action: BOJ & Fed Are Printing $8 billion a day

Stocks edged higher on Thursday as investors digested a slew of central bank related data. The Bank of Japan followed Bernanke’s script and will now print close to $79B a month to stimulate their lackluster economy and help spark inflation. The Nikkei surged and the Yen plunged on the news. Elsewhere, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank held rates steady and did not announce a new round of stimulus. ECB President Mario Draghi made it clear that Cyprus was not a template for other European nations and said that the country’s problems would still exist if they left the euro. The Euro rallied on the news as his comments helped allay concerns that the euro would break-up. In the U.S., weekly jobless claims rose to a four-month high which bodes poorly for the ailing jobs market. Before Friday’s open, the Labor Department said U.S. employers only added 88K in March which missed the Street’s estimate for just under 200k. this was the smallest rise since June 2012 and bodes poorly for the ongoing economy. The unemployment rate was 7.6% because more people left the labor force.

Market Outlook: Uptrend Under Pressure

As always, it is extremely important to be flexible in your approach and change when the facts change (Thank you Mr. Keynes). For those of you that are new to our work, on October 9, we said “the rally was under pressure” and then said the “rally was over” on Oct 19. Immediately after that note was published, stocks fell sharply and a lot of technical damage occurred. Then we published a note on Friday, November 16, 2012 (the exact low for this move) titled, “Time For A Bounce” and the rest is history. Most recently, on Wednesday, February 20, 2013 we sent out a note saying, “Time For A Pullback” and a week later on Feb 27, 2013 we sent a note saying “Bulls Quell Bearish Pressure.” Stay tuned as we will continue to keep you in sync with the market and ahead of the crowd. As always, keep your losses small and never argue with the tape.

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Adam Sarhan

Host Of The #SmartMoneyCircle Podcast, Founder and CEO of 50 Park Investments. Adam provides weekly market updates to ChartYourTrade.com readers. He is a FORBES Contributor and is a frequent guest on all the major financial media outlets.

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